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Eye on the Economy: A Look at Maryland and the Regional Economy in May 2025

Interactive Look at Maryland and the Regional Economy
  • The most recent jobs report showed that between April 2025 and May 2025, Maryland gained 2,900 Total Nonfarm jobs.
  • The official unemployment rate for Maryland increased to 3.2 percent.

SAVE THE DATE

Economic Outlook Forum

30th Annual Economic Outlook Forum: Increasing Maryland's Business Competitiveness

Thursday, November 6, 8:15-11 a.m.
TU University Union

Join RESI Chief Economist Daraius Irani for his annual economic outlook forecast for our state followed by a panel discussion on increasing Maryland's business competitiveness, featuring:

  • Mary Kane, president and CEO, Maryland Chamber of Commerce
  • Brooke Lierman, comptroller, State of Maryland
  • Jay Steinmetz, founder, Barcoding; CEO, Power Up Connect
  • Moderator: Jeff Salkin, news anchor, Maryland Public Television

RESI in the News

Maryland workforce programs offer food, auto, cyber job training
Baltimore Business Journal, May 22, 2025

In Maryland, one in ten residents is employed by the federal government, and the state is known for its scientific research, both of which have come under pressure due to White House spending cuts. Daraius Irani, RESI Chief Economist, noted that this is an uncertain time, with challenges in the job market compounded by federal job reductions and funding cuts affecting medical institutions. Additionally, the threat of tariffs is disrupting supply chains and straining the workforce even further, he added. However, there is still room for optimism. In April, the U.S. Department of Labor reported the addition of 177,000 jobs, and Maryland currently holds the seventh-lowest unemployment rate in the country. Furthermore, several Maryland organizations are actively supporting the state’s workforce by training individuals for in-demand roles such as prep cooks, auto technicians, and cybersecurity specialists. The Franciscan Center of Baltimore is offering a free program to build talent and address workforce gaps in the hospitality industry. Vehicles for Change is providing auto technician training in a wide range of settings, including prisons, juvenile detention centers, auto dealerships, high schools, colleges, and nonprofits. Additionally, BCR Cyber launched the Maryland Cyber Workforce Accelerator Program in April to develop cyber ranges for the state’s 16 community colleges.

Trump’s steel tariff hike sparks concern for Maryland projects, including Key Bridge rebuild
The Baltimore Sun, May 31, 2025

President Donald Trump announced a plan to double tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum, raising them from 25 to 50 percent, in hopes of further securing the U.S. steel industry. However, this price increase is expected to impact several projects, especially in construction, including the new Francis Scott Key Bridge. The office of Governor Wes Moore stated that these continued reckless tariffs will create chaos across the state and the country, leading to higher inflation and potentially pushing the American economy into a recession. The price of steel has risen 16 percent since January, and the additional tariffs could drive prices even higher. RESI Chief Economist Daraius Irani said the potential impact of the tariffs remains unclear and depends on whether President Trump follows through with them. However, he added that if the tariffs remain in place, projects that have not yet begun, such as the new Key Bridge, with an estimated cost of $1.7 to $1.9 billion, would face increasing costs.

'Not a good approach': Maryland steel plant CEO says Trump's tariffs will cause prices to rise
WBAL-TV, June 4, 2025

The owner of Independent Can, a Maryland business that has been making tin cans for nearly 100 years, said that the proposed 50% tariff on steel would not only significantly increase his business and manufacturing costs but also drive up the prices of products such as baby formula, which is packaged in tin cans. These prices could rise by as much as 12.5%. In addition to concerns about price hikes, the owner, Huether, is also worried that, in the long term, competitors may switch to alternative packaging materials. Daraius Irani, RESI Chief Economist, added that there are better and smarter ways to support and promote U.S. manufacturing than imposing higher tariffs. He explained that the impact of these tariffs will also be felt by car buyers, potentially increasing automobile prices by $2,000 to $4,000. While an ideal solution to combat these rising costs would be to rely on a U.S. based supply chain, doing so would require starting from scratch, an effort that could take years and cost billions of dollars. Irani also noted that some steel plants currently operate with as few as 14 workers, so even if new manufacturing plants are built in the U.S., they are unlikely to lead to a surge in steel manufacturing jobs.

Baltimore borrowing $125 million for infrastructure ‘overly risky,’ economists say
The Baltimore Sun, June 4, 2025

Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott’s plan to borrow $125 million to upgrade the city’s public infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, parks, recreation centers, and libraries, has been met with several warnings. Critics argue that while the plan is necessary, the combination of President Trump’s federal budget cuts and the designation of Baltimore as a sanctuary city could make the borrowing financially dangerous. RESI Chief Economist Daraius Irani expressed similar concerns, suggesting that the city’s decision to take on debt might be overly risky. Citing Moody’s recent credit rating downgrade and the Trump administration’s budget reductions, particularly cuts from the Department of Justice affecting federal workers, Irani warned that this is a precarious time to borrow. He emphasized that the full impact of the federal cuts has yet to be felt, as many federal workers remain on payroll through the end of September and are not yet filing for unemployment in Maryland. According to Irani, now is the time to remain cautious and avoid making high-risk financial decisions

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