Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@anu.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: Transfers and Labor Market Behavior of the Elderly in Developing Countries: Theory and Evidence from Vietnam Abstract: In this paper we argue that the strategic interaction between the labor supply decision of the elderly and private transfers from their children lowers the opportunity cost of leisure of the elderly. This in turn magnifies the crowding-out effect of public pensions on the labor supply of the elderly. We show that this mechanism has implications for evaluating the crowding-out effect of public pensions in developing countries. That is, a misspecified econometric model that does not control for the endogeneity of private transfers leads to a biased estimate of the crowding-out effect of public pensions. Using data from a household survey in Vietnam we find that the effect of public pensions on the probability of retirement is 2.5 times larger when explicitly accounting for the interaction between private transfers and the labor supply decision of elderly individuals. Length: 44 pages Creation-Date: 2009-09 Revision-Date: 2009-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2009-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2009 Number: 2009-01 Classification-JEL: H31, H55, I38, J14, J22, J28 Keywords: Altruism, crowding-out, social security, retirement, transfers. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2009-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Thomas Stratmann Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Stratmann Author-Email: tstratma@gmu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, George Mason University Title: More Tickets, Fewer Accidents: How Cash-Strapped Towns Make for Safer Roads Abstract: Traffic accidents are one of the leading causes of injury and death in the U.S. The role of traffic law enforcement in the reduction of accidents has been studied by relatively few papers and with mixed results that may be due to a simultaneity problem. Traffic law enforcement may reduce accidents, but police are also likely to be stricter in accident- prone areas. We use municipal budgetary shortfalls as an instrumental variable to identify the effect of traffic citations on traffic safety and show that budgetary shortfalls lead to more frequent issuance of tickets to drivers. Using a panel of municipalities in Massachusetts, we show that increases in the number of tickets written reduce motor vehicle accidents and accident related injuries. The findings show that failure to control for endogeneity results in a significant underestimation of the positive impact of law enforcement on traffic safety. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2009-06 Revision-Date: 2009-06 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2009-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2009 Number: 2009-02 Classification-JEL: K32, K42, H71, C33 Keywords: Traffic accidents, safety, law enforcement, simultaneity. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2009-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Religion, Clubs, and Emergent Social Divides Abstract: Arguments for and against the existence of an American cultural divide are frequently placed in a religious context. This paper seeks to establish that, all politics aside, the American religious divide is real, that modern religious polarization is not a uniquely American phenomenon, and that religious divides can be understood as naturally emergent within the club theory of religion. Analysis of the 2005 Baylor University Religion Survey reveals a bimodal distribution of religious commitment in the United States. International survey data reveals bimodal distributions in twenty-five of twenty-nine surveyed countries. The club theory of religion, when applied in a multi-agent model, generates bimodal distributions of religious commitment whose emergence correlates to the substitutability of club goods for standard goods and the mean population wage rate. This tendency towards religious polarization has important ramifications for majority rule electoral outcomes when religion is politically salient. Majority rule, principally analogous to the statistical median, is a non-robust estimator of voter preferences when they are bimodally distributed. Given recent evidence that religiosity has come to dominate income as a determinant of voter preferences, small errors can be anticipated to disproportionately affect electoral outcomes in the U.S. Length: 35 pages Creation-Date: 2009-09 Revision-Date: 2010-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2009-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2009 Number: 2009-03 Keywords: Culture Divide, Religious Divide, Club Theory, Multi-Agent Model, Sacrifice and Stigma. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2009-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Mark J. Lee Author-X-Name-First: Mark Author-X-Name-Last: Lee Author-Email: mlee@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Technology Shocks and Business Cycle: An Analysis Based on the Malmquist Index Abstract: The goal of this study examines the quantitative implications of the Malmquist index in a standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) model as a measure of technology shock. To achieve this, the paper first investigates the empirical validity of the equivalence proposition on the two technology shock measures: a relatively new Malmquist Index and the predominant Solow residual. On the basis of permutation tests, this paper shows the observational equivalence of the two measures. Then, the role of technology shock measured by the Malmquist index in the RBC model is examined. The study uncovers that the RBC model with the Malmquist index successfully replicates the stylized U.S. business cycle features documented in the existing literature. Finally, this paper discusses potential benefits of the Malmquist index in the business cycle studies. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2009-12 Revision-Date: 2009-12 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2009-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2009 Number: 2009-04 Classification-JEL: E32, O47 Keywords: Malmquist Index, Observational Equivalence, Solow Residual, RBC Model, Aggregate Technology Shocks. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2009-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Global Social Interactions with Sequential Binary Decisions: The Case of Marriage, Divorce, and Stigma Abstract: This paper studies global social interactions in a stylized model of marriage and divorce with complementarities across agents. The key point of departure from traditional models of social interactions is that actions are interrelated and sequential. We establish existence and uniqueness results akin to those in traditional models. In contrast to these models, however, we show that the presence of strategic complementarities is no longer sufficient to generate a social multiplier that exceeds one in this environment. Self-fulfilling conformity, whereby a greater desire to conform at the individual level leads to greater homogeneity of choices in the aggregate, is not retained either. Some empirical implications are also discussed. Length: 38 pages Creation-Date: 2010-01 Revision-Date: 2010-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-01 Classification-JEL: Z13, C72, D62 Keywords: Social interactions, social multiplier, self-fulfilling conformity, uniqueness under moderate social influence. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Pill and Partnerships: The impact of the birth control pill on cohabitation Abstract: This paper investigates the impact on cohabitation behavior of the introduction and dispersion of the birth control pill in the US during the 1960s and early 1970s. A theoretical model generates several predictions that are tested using the first wave of the National Survey of Families and Households. Empirically, the causal effect is identified by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in state laws granting access to the pill to unmarried women under age 21. The evidence shows that the pill was a catalyst that increased cohabitation's role in selecting marriage partners, but did little in the short run to promote cohabitation as a substitute for marriage. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2010-02 Revision-Date: 2010-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-02 Classification-JEL: J11, J12 Keywords: Early legal access to the pill, cohabitation, marriage trends Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@unsw.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: Health Care Financing over the Life Cycle, Universal Medical Vouchers and Welfare Abstract: In this paper we develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations (OLG) model with health shocks to analyze the life-cycle pattern of insurance choice and health care spending. We use data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) and show that our model is able to match the life-cycle trends of insurance take up ratios and average medical expenditures in the U.S. We then demonstrate how this model can be used to conduct health care policy analysis by evaluating the macroeconomic effects of a counter factual health care reform using a system of universal health insurance vouchers. Our results suggest that health insurance vouchers are able to extend insurance coverage to the entire population but they also increase aggregate spending on health. More importantly, we find that the positive insurance effect (efficient risk pooling) dominates the negative incentive effect (tax distortions and moral hazard) which results in significant welfare gains for all generations when a payroll tax is used to finance the voucher program. In addition, our results suggest that the choice of tax financing instrument and accounting for general equilibrium price adjustments are critical in determining the performance of the voucher program. Length: 49 pages Creation-Date: 2010-02 Revision-Date: 2010-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-03 Classification-JEL: H51, I18, I38, E6, E21, E62 Keywords: Public health insurance, private health insurance, vouchers, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, endogenous health production. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last:Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: A Theory of Liberal Churches Abstract: There is a counterintuitive gap in the club theory of religion. While it elegantly accounts for the notable success of strict sectarian religious groups in recruiting members and maintaining commitment, it exhibits less satisfactory properties when used to account for groups requiring neither extreme nor zero sacrifice. Such corner solutions, compared to the moderate middle, are rarely observed empirically. Within the original representative agent model, moderate groups are everywhere and always a suboptimal choice for rational, utility maximizing agents. In this paper, we extend the original model to operate within a multi-agent computational context, with heterogeneous agents occupying coordinates in a two dimensional lattice, making repeated decisions over time. Our model offers the possibility of successful moderate groups, including outcomes wherein the population is dominated by moderate groups. The viability of moderate groups is a result of heterogeneous agent wages. Lower wage agents offer greater time contributions, but lesser financial contributions to groups. Higher sacrifice rates incentive greater contributions from members, but reduce private productivity and screen out other potential members with greater financial resources. Moderate groups succeed by offering an optimal balance of these countervailing forces. Length: 36 pages Creation-Date: 2010-02 Revision-Date: 2010-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-04 Classification-JEL: C63, Z12, D71 Keywords: Club Theory of Religion, Liberal, Moderate, Multi-Agent Computational Model, Sacrifice, Heterogeneous Agents. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Diane M. Harnak Hall Author-X-Name-First: Diane Author-X-Name-Last: Harnek Hall Author-Email: dhall@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Family Studies and Community Development, Towson University Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Thomas Rhoads Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Rhoads Author-Email: trhoads@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Does the Availability of Parental Health Insurance Affect the College Enrollment Decision of Young Americans? Abstract: The present study examines whether the college enrollment decision of young individuals (student full-time, student part-time, non-student) depends on the availability of health insurance from their parents. Our findings indicate that the availability of parental health insurance has strong significant effects on the probability that a young individual enrolls as a full-time student. A young individual who has access to health insurance via a parent is up to 20.5 percent more likely to enroll as a full-time student than an individual without parental health insurance. After controlling for unobserved heterogeneity this probablity drops to 5.7 percent but is still highly significant. We also find that the marginal effect of the availability of parental health insurance has a larger effect on older students between age 21-23. We provide a brief discussion about possible implications of the Affordable Care Act 2010 in this context. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2010-02 Revision-Date: 2011-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-05 Classification-JEL: C35, I23, I10 Keywords: Occupational choice, health insurance, educational choice, survey of income and program participation (SIPP). Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Thomas Rhoads Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Rhoads Author-Email: trhoads@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Stadium Construction and Minor League Baseball Attendance Abstract: The established literature shows that new stadium construction for major league baseball (MLB) teams can increase attendance, but there are limited studies at the minor league level. We use a data set encompassing all A, AA, and AAA minor league baseball teams from 1992 to 2006 to estimate the impact of stadium construction on minor league attendance. This data set includes almost 200 teams, over half of which constructed a new stadium during the 15-year observation period. Over a ten year period our results show that new stadiums increase attendance by 1.2 million fans at the AAA level, 0.4 million at the AA and high A level, and 0.2 million at short season low A. Additionally, we find evidence that minor and major league baseball are potentially substitutes as increased ticket prices for the nearest MLB team lead to higher minor league attendance. However, a new stadium for local MLB teams does not seem to negatively impact minor league attendance. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2010-03 Revision-Date: 2010-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-06.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-06 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Natalia Caldes Author-X-Name-First: Natalia Author-X-Name-Last: Caldes Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: ETSIA- Universidad Polit�cnica de Madrid Title: Crisis, Food Security, and Conditional Cash Transfers in Nicaragua Abstract: Nicaragua�s Red de Protecci�n Social (RPS), is part of a wave of conditional cash transfer programs that provide substantial cash payments to households if certain requirements are met such as school attendance, visits to health care facilities, and participation in nutritional seminars. Utilizing the experimental design of RPS we test the impacts of the program on food expenditures and variety in consumed food bundles by examining the influences of initial poverty and an exogenous shock to coffee prices on coffee producing communities. Through cash payments, RPS was able to increase food consumption and variety. Additionally, nutrition education programs provided by RPS appear to have been successful, as household expenditure share on food increased (although not significantly), while Engel�s law suggests that food share should decrease with a conditional cash monetary transfer. Results also show that coffee price shocks tended to decrease both the variety and expenditures on cereals and vegetables. Moreover, the shock to coffee prices seems to have had a greater impact on the consumption of households relatively better off pre-program. Finally, RPS impacts on food security appear to remain constant across households even when there are differences in initial poverty or the exogenous shock to coffee prices. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2010-03 Revision-Date: 2010-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-07.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-07 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kim P. Huynh Author-X-Name-First: Kim Author-X-Name-Last: Huynh Author-Email: kphuynh@indiana.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Indiana University - Bloomington Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Subjective Health Expectations Abstract: Subjective health expectations are derived using data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). We first use a Bayesian updating mechanism to correct for focal point responses and reporting errors of the original health expectations variable. We then test the quality of the health expectations measure and describe its correlation with various health indicators and other individual characteristics. Our results indicate that subjective health expectations do contain additional information that is not incorporated in subjective mortality expectations and that the rational expectations assumption cannot be rejected for subjective health expectations. Finally, the data suggest that individuals younger than 70 years of age seem to be more pessimistic about their health than individuals in their 70's. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2010-03 Revision-Date: 2014-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-08.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2009 Number: 2010-08 Classification-JEL: I10, D84, C11, C23 Keywords: Subjective Health Expectations, Rational Health Expectations, Work Limiting Health Problems, Bayesian Updating of Expectations. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@anu.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: Medical Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from a U.S. Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Abstract: We investigate the association between age and medical spending in the U.S. using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). We estimate a partial linear seminonparametric model and construct "pure" life-cycle profiles of health spending simultaneously controlling for time effects (i.e. institutional changes and business cycles effects) and cohort effects (i.e. generation specific conditions). We find that time and cohort effects introduce a significant estimation bias into predictions of health expenditures per age group, especially for individuals older than 60 years. The estimation biases introduced by cohort effects increase monotonically with age while time effects are non-monotone. Overall, cohort effect biases dominate time effect biases in magnitude for high age groups. Length: 31 pages Creation-Date: 2010-04 Revision-Date: 2013-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-09.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-09 Classification-JEL: I10, I11, C14, C23, D12, D91, J10 Keywords: Age dependent U.S. health care spending, U.S. health expenditure decomposition, life-cycle profiles, partial linear models, pseudo panels, medical expenditure panel survey (MEPS). Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: David M. Levy Author-X-Name-First: David Author-X-Name-Last: Levy Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, George Mason University Title: Emergent Pareto-Levy Distributed Returns to Research in a Multi-Agent Model of Endogenous Technical Change Abstract: We build a multi-agent model of endogenous technical change in which heterogeneous investments in patented knowledge generate Pareto-Levy and lognormal distributed returns to investment in research from very weak distributional assumptions. Firms produce a homogenous good and a public stock of knowledge accumulates from the expired patents of privately produced knowledge. Increasing returns to scale are derivative of endogenously produced technology, but the market remains competitive due to imperfect information and costly household search. The interaction of heterogeneous knowledge, research investment, revenues, and search outcomes across agents endogenously generates the empirically observed but seemingly idiosyncratic Pareto- Levy and lognormal mixture distribution of market returns. These distributional characteristics have ramifications for endogenous growth models given the importance of extreme values and market leaders in technological advancement. Average growth rates in the model have a global maximum at a finite, non-zero patent length. The distribution of growth rates is characterized by �fat tails.� The variance of growth rates increases with patent length. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2010-04 Revision-Date: 2010-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-10.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-10 Classification-JEL: C63, L11, O33, D83 Keywords: patents, endogenous growth, increasing returns to scale, price dispersion, search, heterogeneous agents. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yasuyuki Sawada Author-X-Name-First: Yasuyuki Author-X-Name-Last: Sawada Author-Email: sawada@e.u-tokyo.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo Author-Name: Kazumitsu Nawata Author-X-Name-First: Kazumitsu Author-X-Name-Last: Nawata Author-Email: nawata@tmi.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo Author-Name: Masako Ii Author-X-Name-First: Masako Author-X-Name-Last: Ii Author-Email: masako@econ.hit-u.ac.jp Author-Workplace-Name: School of International and Public Policy, Hitotsubashi University Author-Name: Mark J. Lee Author-X-Name-First: Mark Author-X-Name-Last: Lee Author-Email: mlee@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Did the Financial Crisis in Japan Affect Household Welfare Seriously? Abstract: We investigate whether and how the credit crunch during the financial crisis in Japan affected household welfare. We estimate the consumption Euler equation with endogenous credit constraints using household panel data for 1993�1999, generating several findings. First, a small but non-negligible portion of the households faced credit constraints during the crisis, rejecting the standard consumption Euler equation. Second, the credit crunch affected household welfare negatively, albeit not seriously. The estimated welfare loss ranges between two to ten percent increases in marginal utility, depending on income level. Finally, our results corroborate that the credit crunch in Japan was supply-driven. Length: 35 pages Creation-Date: 2010-04 Revision-Date: 2010-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-11.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-11 Classification-JEL: D91, E21 Keywords: Credit crunch, Consumption Euler equation, Household Welfare. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@anu.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: The Macroeconomics of Health Savings Accounts Abstract: We analyze whether the introduction of Health Savings Accounts (HSAs), which is a health insurance reform coupled with a capital tax reform, can reduce health care expenditures in the United States and increase the fraction of the population with health insurance. Unlike previous studies on HSAs, our analysis relies on a general equilibrium framework and therefore fully accounts for feedback effects from general equilibrium price changes. Our results from numerical simulations indicate that the introduction of HSAs increases the percentage of the working age population with health insurance in the long run but fails to control spending on health care. The outcome of a HSAs reform depends critically on the annual contribution limits to HSAs and the interplay of general equilibrium effects. Finally, the long-run tax revenue loss due to the introduction of HSAs is large and can amount to up to 5 percent of GDP. Length: 43 pages Creation-Date: 2010-06 Revision-Date: 2016-11 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-12.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-12 Classification-JEL: H51, I18, I38 Keywords: Health saving accounts, health care reform, privatization of health care systems, health insurance, stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model with health. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Louise Laurence Author-X-Name-First: Louise Author-X-Name-Last: Laurence Author-Email: llaurence@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Allocation of Merit Pay in Academia Abstract: This paper investigates whether the widespread awarding of faculty merit pay at a large public university accurately reflects productivity. We show that pairwise voting on a quality standard by a committee can in theory be consistent with observed allocation patterns. However, the data indicate only nominal adherence to a quality standard. Departments with more severe compression issues are more likely to award merit pay as a countermeasure and some departments appear to be motivated by nonpecuniary incentives. Much of the variance in merit pay allocation remains unexplained. These results suggest reform is needed to improve transparency in the merit system. Length: 34 pages Creation-Date: 2010-07 Revision-Date: 2010-07 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-13.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-13 Classification-JEL: D7, I20, J33, M52 Keywords: Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Jeremy G. Weber Author-X-Name-First: Jeremy Author-X-Name-Last: Weber Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: University of Wisconsin-Madison Author-Name: Bradford L. Barham Author-X-Name-First: Bradford Author-X-Name-Last: Barham Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: University of Wisconsin-Madison Author-Name: Mercedez Callenes Author-X-Name-First: Mercedez Author-X-Name-Last: Callenes Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Grupo de Analisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE), Peru Author-Name: Jessa M. Lewis Author-X-Name-First: Jessa Author-X-Name-Last: Lewis Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: University of Wisconsin-Madison Title: Fair Trade-Organic Coffee Cooperatives, Migration, and Secondary Schooling in Southern Mexico Abstract: From 1995 to 2005 educational attainment of youth in rural Southern Mexico rose dramatically. Three distinct trends emerged in the region that could explain the rise in education. First, thousands of coffee-producing households joined cooperatives that have entered Fair Trade relationships and/or began adopting organic practices. Then, beginning in approximately 2000, US migration took off, while intra-Mexico migration steadily increased, providing remittance income and more lucrative alternatives in labor markets outside of coffee production. Third, Progresa/Oportunidades, a conditional cash transfer program aimed at promoting education, became available to families in the region in 1998 and 1999. Using survey data from 845 coffee farming households in Oaxaca and Chiapas, Mexico, this paper explores how participation in Fair Trade-organic cooperatives coffee price premiums, migration, and Progresa/Oportunidades shape education attainment for young adults (16-25). Results from a household fixed-effects model show that participating in a Fair Trade-organic cooperative contributed to a one-half year increase in schooling for girls over the study period. The impacts of US migration opportunities appear to have even stronger positive impacts on years of schooling for females, while for males increased migration opportunities tend to diminish the positive effects of being in a Fair Trade- organic cooperative on educational attainment. Length: 39 pages Creation-Date: 2010-08 Revision-Date: 2010-08 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-14.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-14 Classification-JEL: N56, I20, F22 Keywords: Latin America, Mexico, Fair Trade, Organic, Migration, Education. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Jason Aimone Author-X-Name-First: Jason Author-X-Name-Last: Aimone Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: George Mason University Author-Name: Laurence R. Iannaccone Author-X-Name-First: Laurence Author-X-Name-Last: Iannaccone Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Chapman University Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Jared Rubin Author-X-Name-First: Jared Author-X-Name-Last: Rubin Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: California State University, Fullerton Title: Endogenous Group Formation via Unproductive Costs Abstract: How and why do groups form? In many cases, group formation is endogenous to the actions that individual members take and the norms associated with these actions. In this paper, we conduct an experiment that allows groups to form endogenously in the context of the classic voluntary contribution mechanism public goods game. We identify unproductive costs � �sacrifice� � as a mechanism for endogenous group formation, a result which is consistent with the �sacrifice and stigma� theory of religious groups. We find that changes in relative prices (between private and public goods) act to screen out free-riders, subjects who choose high-sacrifice groups contribute more to the public good once in these groups, and moderate welfare gains are available to those who voluntarily incur unproductive costs. Length: 48 pages Creation-Date: 2010-08 Revision-Date: 2010-09 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-15.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: Second version, 2010 Number: 2010-15 Classification-JEL: C92, D71, H41, Z12 Keywords: Endogenous Group Formation, Laboratory Experiment, Free Riding, Public Goods Game, Voluntary Contribution Mechanism, Sacrifice, Unproductive Costs. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Shane Sanders Author-X-Name-First: Shane Author-X-Name-Last: Sanders Author-Email: shane.sanders@nicholls.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Nicholls State University Title: Political Costs and Fiscal Benefits: The Political Economy of Residential Property Value Assessment Abstract: In many American states and municipalities, property taxes are the primary means of raising government revenues. Unlike sales or income taxes, however, property taxes have a significant element of subjectivity - the assessed value of the property being taxed. Given this subjectivity, there exists the possibility of political and fiscal incentives entering into property value assessment. We examine the determinants of assessed property value growth in a panel of 351 Massachusetts municipalities from 1995 to 2009. We hypothesize that the year to year growth of assessed value is in part determined by the municipality�s fiscal condition, the availability of alternative revenue sources, and whether the municipality�s property assessor is directly elected or appointed by an elected official. We find evidence that elected assessors respond to both the fiscal benefits and political costs of increasing their assessment of property values. Appraisals grow faster in towns with appointed assessors and respond to temporary raises in the cap on tax revenues with increases in appraisal growth. Length: 16 pages Creation-Date: 2010-08 Revision-Date: 2010-08 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-16.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-16 Classification-JEL: H71, D70 Keywords: Property Taxes, Local Public Finance, Property Appraisal. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gerhard Glomm Author-X-Name-First: Gerhard Author-X-Name-Last: Glomm Author-Email: gglomm@indiana.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Indiana University - Bloomington Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Fiscal System in Egypt Abstract: We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the fiscal situation of Egypt. We model Egypt as a small open economy that takes real interest rates and world prices of fuel as given. Since a large component of the government budget consists of pensions payments, we use an overlapping generations structure. The model contains descriptions of the public and private sector, as well as descriptions of the production sectors for a public good such as infrastructure, energy, and a final aggregate consumption good. The model pays special attention to the energy sector. We then calibrate the model to data from Egypt. The following policy reforms are considered: (i) reductions in pensions to public sector workers, (ii) reductions in pensions to private sector workers, (iii) reductions in the public sector pay premiums, (iv) decreases of the energy subsidies, and (v) a decrease of the public sector workforce. In each case we reduce the "expenditure" by 15 percent. For each of the reforms we adjust consumption taxes, labor taxes, "capital taxes", or public investments in infrastructure to satisfy the government budget constraint. We calculate the new steady states, the transition paths to the new steady states, and the size of the welfare gains or losses for all reforms. We find that due to the modest nature of the reforms, the effect of the policy reforms on GDP and consumption are modest. Often these gains are in the neighborhood of 1 percent. We find that welfare gains or losses can be sizable and that the largest gains from the reforms are attained when the freed up resources are used for infrastructure investments or for lowering the tax on company profits. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2010-10 Revision-Date: 2010-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-17.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-17 Classification-JEL: E21, E63, H55, J26, J45 Keywords: Fiscal policy reform, public sector reform, energy subsidies, growth. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vanya Slavchevska Author-X-Name-First: Vanya Author-X-Name-Last: Slavchevska Author-Email: vs4030a@student.american.edu Author-Workplace-Name: American University Title: How Effective are Cash Transfer Programs at Improving Nutritional Status? Abstract: Cash transfer programs have not always affected children�s nutritional status. We reviewed 30,000 articles relating cash transfer programs and height for age, finding 21 papers on 17 programs. Applying meta-analysis we examine the overarching relationship, finding that the programs� average impact on height-for-age is positive, but small and not statistically significant. We evaluate many program, child and local characteristics� correlation with estimated outcome. Conditional programs statistically accomplish the same as unconditional. However, conditionalities not related to health or education strongly inhibit child growth. We see girls benefiting more than boys and more disadvantaged areas benefiting more. Length: 39 pages Creation-Date: 2010-11 Revision-Date: 2012-12 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-18.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2010 Number: 2010-18 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Latin America, Cash Transfer Programs. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2010-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Matthew Chambers Author-X-Name-First: Matthew Author-X-Name-Last: Chambers Author-Email: mchambers@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Carlos Garriga Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Author-X-Name-Last: Garriga Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Author-Name: Don E. Schlagenhauf Author-X-Name-First: Don Author-X-Name-Last: Schlagenhauf Author-Email: dschlage@mailer.fsu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Florida State University Title: Did Housing Policies Cause the Post-War Boom in Homeownership? A General Equilibrium Analysis Abstract: The objective of this paper is to understand the sources of the boom in home ownership between 1940 and 1960. The increase over this period was five times larger than the recent episode 1996-2004. In the post-depression period the government opted to intervene and regulate housing finance, provide assistance programs (i.e. through the Veteran Administration), and change tax provision towards housing. The result was a change in the maturity structure of mortgage loans, downpayment requirements and increase of credit. In addition, the economy underwent important changes in the demographic structure, the income distribution. The relative importance of these different driving forces is analyzed using a quantitative general equilibrium overlapping generation model with housing. The parameterized model is consistent with key aggregate and distributional features in the U.S. in 1940. In contrast to the recent episode, income and demographics are the crucial variables in accounting for the increase in homeownership. Essentially, the level and shape of income over the life-cycle are a precondition for the government reforms in housing markets and housing finance to play an important role in generating an increase in the aggregate home ownership. The increase in life expectancy and the shift in the distribution of age cohort also had a significant effect in the demand for housing. Length: 29 pages Creation-Date: 2011-02 Revision-Date: 2011-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2011-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2011 Number: 2011-01 Classification-JEL: E2, E6 Keywords: Housing Finance, First-time buyers, life-cycle. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2011-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Thomas Jeitschko Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Jeitschko Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice and Department of Economics, Michigan State University Author-Name: Nanyun Zhang Author-X-Name-First: Nanyun Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang Author-Email: nzhang@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Patent Pools and Product Development Abstract: The conventional wisdom is that the formation of patent pools is welfare enhancing when patents are complementary, since the pool avoids a double-marginalization problem associated with independent licensing. The focus of this paper is on (downstream) product development and commercialization on the basis of perfectly complementary patents. We consider development technologies that entail spillovers between rivals, and assume that nal demand products are imperfect substitutes. If pool formation either increases spillovers in development or decreases the degree of product di erentiation, pool formation can actually adversely a ect overall welfare by reducing incentives towards product development and product market competition|even with perfectly complementary patents. This significantly modifies and possibly even negates the conventional wisdom for many settings. The paper provides insights into why patent pools are uncommon in science-based industries such as biotech, despite there being strong policy advocacy for them. Length: 37 pages Creation-Date: 2011-02 Revision-Date: 2011-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2011-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2011 Number: 2011-02 Classification-JEL: L1, L2, L4, L6, D2, D4 Keywords: Patent Pools, Research and Development, Innovation, BioTechnology, Electronics. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2011-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marina Azzimonti Author-X-Name-First: Marina Author-X-Name-Last: Azzimonti Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Author-Name: Eva de Francisco Author-X-Name-First: Eva Author-X-Name-Last: de Francisco Author-Email: EDefrancisco@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vincenzo Quadrini Author-X-Name-First: Vincenzo Author-X-Name-Last: Quadrini Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Southern California Title: Financial globalization and the raising of public debt Abstract: During the last three decades the stock of government debt has increased in most developed countries. During the same period inter- national capital markets have been liberalized. In this paper we de- velop a two-country political economy model with incomplete markets and endogenous government borrowing and show that countries choose higher levels of public debt when nancial markets are internationally integrated. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2011-03 Revision-Date: 2011-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2011-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2011 Number: 2011-03 Classification-JEL: Keywords: Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2011-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Jialu Liu Author-X-Name-First: Jialu Author-X-Name-Last: Liu Author-Email: jliu@allegheny.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Allegheny College Title: Does Health Insurance Decrease Health Expenditure Risk in Developing Countries? The Case of China Abstract: We make use of panel data from the China Health and Nutrition Survey between 1991 and 2006 to investigate whether health insurance increases out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditure risk. We find that health insurance increases the probability of catastrophic OOP health expenditures using a series of Probit models. We then use two-part as well as sample selection models to account for selection on unobservable variables and find that although the probability of positive OOP health expenditures increases with the availability of health insurance, the actual level of OOP health expenditures decreases. More specifically, we find that for a per- son with positive OOP health expenditures, having health insurance reduces the level of OOP expenses by 12.56 percent while controlling for selection effects. Length: 36 pages Creation-Date: 2011-04 Revision-Date: 2014-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2011-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2011 Number: 2011-04 Classification-JEL: I11, C33, C34 Keywords: health insurance, exposure to health risk, health care in China, out-of-pocket health expenditure in China, two-part model, bivariate sample selection model, Heckman two- step estimator, China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS). Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2011-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Center for Advanced Modeling of the Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University Author-Name: Jared Rubin Author-X-Name-First: Jared Author-X-Name-Last: Rubin Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Chapman University Title: An Agent-Based Model of Centralized Institutions, Social Network Technology, and Revolution Abstract: Recent uprisings in the Arab world consist of individuals revealing vastly different preferences than were expressed prior to the uprisings. This paper sheds light on the general mechanisms underlying large-scale social and institutional change. We employ an agent-based model to test the impact of authority centralization and social network technology on preference revelation and falsification, social protest, and institutional change. We find that the amount of social and institutional change is decreasing with authority centralization in simulations with low network range but is increasing with authority centralization in simulations with greater network range. The relationship between institutional change and social shocks is not linear, but rather is characterized by sharp discontinuities. The threshold at which a shock can �tip� a system towards institutional change is decreasing with the geographic reach of citizen social networks. Farther reaching social networks reduce the robustness and resilience of central authorities to change. This helps explain why highly centralized regimes frequently attempt to restrict information flows via the media and Internet. More generally, our results highlight the role that information and communication technology can play in triggering cascades of preference revelation and revolutionary activity in varying institutional regimes. Length: 38 pages Creation-Date: 2011-10 Revision-Date: 2011-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2011-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2011 Number: 2011-05 Classification-JEL: C63, Z13, D83, D85, D71, H11 Keywords: preference falsification, revolution, protest, network technology, agent-based model. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2011-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@anu.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: The Extension of Social Security Coverage in Developing Countries Abstract: We study the dynamic general equilibrium effects of introducing a social pension program to elderly informal sector workers in developing countries who lack formal risk sharing mechanisms against income and longevity risk. To this end, we formulate a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates defining features of developing countries: a large informal sector, private transfers as an informal safety net, and a non-universal social security system. We find that the extension of retirement benefits to informal sector workers results in efficiency losses due to adverse effects on capital accumulation and the allocation of resources across formal and informal sectors. Despite these losses recipients of social pensions experience welfare gains as the positive insurance effects attributed to the extension of a social insurance system dominate. The welfare gains crucially depend on the skill distribution, private intra-family transfers and the specific tax used to finance the expansion. Length: 48 pages Creation-Date: 2011-11 Revision-Date: 2011-11 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2011-06.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2011 Number: 2011-06 Classification-JEL: E6, E21, E26, H30, H53, H55, I38, O17 Keywords: Informal Sector, Family Social Safety Nets, Social Pension, General Equi-librium, and Welfare. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2011-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Lia Fernald Author-X-Name-First: Lia Author-X-Name-Last: Fernald Author-Workplace-Name: School of Public Health, UC Berkeley Author-Name: Paul Gertler Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Gertler Author-Workplace-Name: Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley Title: Wealthy, healthy, and wise: does money compensate for being born into difficult conditions? Abstract: Recent studies have linked transfers from Mexican conditional cash transfer program Oportunidades (formerly PROGRESA) to improvements in child development (Fernald, Gertler, and Neufeld 2008, 2009) but this work has been crit icized as failing to account for endogeneity of the transfers. We create an exogenous instrume nt for the amount of tran sfers and use it to test program and transfer effects. A pplying the new instrument confirms that improvements in child development are more linked to the transfers themselves than to other portions of the program, which involve medical checkups as well as educational sessions for mothers. We also find evidence that the program facilitates catch-up growth, a phenomenon of disputed importance in the health literature. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2012-02 Revision-Date: 2012-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2012-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2012 Number: 2012-01 Classification-JEL: I12, O12, I38 Keywords: PROGRESA, Oportunidades, conditional cas h transfers, instrument al variables, child development, child health, Mexico. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2012-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Center for Advanced Modeling of the Social, Behavioral, and Health Sciences, Johns Hopkins University Title: Regulatory Enforcement, Politics, and Institutional Distance: OSHA Inspections 1990-2010 Abstract: We explore the determinants of inspection outcomes across 1.6 million Occupational Safety and Health Agency audits from 1990 through 2010. We find that discretion in enforcement differs in state and federally conducted inspections. State agencies are more sensitive to local economic conditions, finding fewer standard violations and fewer serious violations as unemployment increases. Larger companies receive greater lenience in multiple dimensions. Inspector issued fines and final fines, after negotiated reductions, are both smaller during Republican presidencies. Quantile regression analysis reveals that Presidential and Congressional party affiliations have their greatest impact on the largest negotiated reductions in fines. Length: 35 pages Creation-Date: 2012-02 Revision-Date: 2013-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2012-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2012 Number: 2012-02 Classification-JEL: K23, H73, I18 Keywords: Regulation, Enforcement, Occupational Safety, Institutional Differences. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2012-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Lia Fernald Author-X-Name-First: Lia Author-X-Name-Last: Fernald Author-Workplace-Name: School of Public Health, UC Berkeley Author-Name: Paul Gertler Author-X-Name-First: Paul Author-X-Name-Last: Gertler Author-Workplace-Name: Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley Title: Oh Brother! Testing the Etiology of Sibling Effects Using External Cash Transfers Abstract: Siblings can slow child development, but distinguishing intrinsic from economic circumstances has been more difficult. The grants of the Oportunidades Mexican welfare program allo w us to test this linkage. We investigate whether transfers increase firstborn characteristics faster than other children�s characteristics, and whether the observed negative effects of being part of a larger set of siblings stem from having to share household resources. We find that firstborn children get larger physical and verbal benefits from transfers, but beha vioral improvements are less tied to cash than to program participation. Children in larger households seem resource constrained; there, transfers have larger impacts. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2012-03 Revision-Date: 2012-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2012-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2012 Number: 2012-03 Classification-JEL: O12, J13, I38 Keywords: PROGRESA, Oportunidades, Mexico, conditional cash transf ers, child development, child health, sibling effects, intrahousehold allocation. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2012-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Michael D. Makowsky Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Makowsky Author-Email: mikemakowsky@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Thomas Stratmann Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Stratmann Author-Email: tstratma@gmu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, George Mason University Title: Politics, Unemployment, and the Enforcement of Immigration Law Abstract: Immigration control-related audits and their resulting sanctions are not solely determined by impartial enforcement of laws and regulations. They are also determined by the incentives faced by vote-maximizing congressmen, agents acting on their behalf, and workers likely to compete with immigrants in the local labor market. In this paper we test to what extent congressional oversight, i.e., legislative involvement, determines the bureaucratic immigration enforcement process. We examine the determinants of decisions made at each stage of regulatory enforcement for over 40,000 audits from 1990 to 2000. This includes an analysis of the determinants of whether a firm is 1) found in violation, 2) whether a warning or fine issued, 3) the size of the fine issued, and 4) how much of dollar reduction fined employers were able to negotiate after the fact. Consistent with the hypothesis that locals will provide more tips to the enforcement agency when unemployment is high, we find that the number of audits conducted grows with increased local unemployment. We also find that a congressman's party affiliation and its interaction with committee membership, party rank, and party majority status, as well as firm size and local union membership, correlate to bureaucratic decisions made at every stage of immigration enforcement. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2012-03 Revision-Date: 2012-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2012-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2012 Number: 2012-04 Classification-JEL: J61, K31, K42 Keywords: Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2012-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Jason Mathias Author-X-Name-First: Jason Author-X-Name-Last: Mathias Author-Email: jmathias6@gmail.com Title: Getting the Most for Federal Dollars: Landowner Responsiveness to Conservation Incentives Abstract: Previous research on landowner willingness to retire land into the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) is based on cross-sectional data prior to 2002. Using enrollment data on a CRP subprogram from 1998 to 2010 we find that incentives matter more for pasture than cropland, and we find that counties producing cattle respond more strongly to current incentives. We also see an idiosyncratic lack of participation in Washington State. Finally, contrary to one recent study, we see that the discounted stream of payments matters to producers as much as up-front incentives. In counties producing few cattle, up-front incentives have virtually no effect. Length: 18 pages Creation-Date: 2012-11 Revision-Date: 2012-11 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2012-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2012 Number: 2012-05 Classification-JEL: H23, Q15, Q24, Q58 Keywords: Conservation Reserve Program, Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program, agricultural economics, landowner incentives, subsidy response, agricultural policy. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2012-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gerhard Glomm Author-X-Name-First: Gerhard Author-X-Name-Last: Glomm Author-Email: gglomm@indiana.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Indiana University - Bloomington Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@unsw.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: Fiscal Austerity Measures: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Increases Abstract: We formulate an overlapping generations model with skill heterogeneity and productive and non-productive government programs to study the macroeconomic and intergenerational welfare effects caused by risk premium shocks and government debt reductions. We demonstrate that in a small open economy with a high level of debt-to-GDP ratio a small increase in the risk premium leads to substantial output contraction and negative welfare effects. Next, we quantify the effects of reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio using a wide range of fiscal austerity measures. These reforms result in trade-offs between short-run contractions and long-run expansions in aggregate output. In addition, the spending-based austerity reform is dominated by the tax-based reform in terms of income in the short run, but becomes dominant in the long run. The welfare effects vary significantly across generations, depending on fiscal austerity measures, skills and working sector. The current old and middle age generations experience welfare losses while current young workers and future generations are beneficiaries of the reforms. A mixed reform results in the largest welfare effects. Length: 46 pages Creation-Date: 2013-01 Revision-Date: 2013-08 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2013-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2013 Number: 2013-01 Classification-JEL: E21, E63, H55, J26, J45 Keywords: Fiscal consolidation, welfare, distributional effects, overlapping generations, dynamic general equilibrium. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2013-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gerhard Glomm Author-X-Name-First: Gerhard Author-X-Name-Last: Glomm Author-Email: gglomm@indiana.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Indiana University - Bloomington Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: A Macroeconomic Analysis of Energy Subsidies in a Small Open Economy Abstract: We construct a dynamic model of a small open economy to analyze the effects of large energy subsidies. The model includes domestic energy production and consumption, trade in energy at world market prices, as well as private and public sector production. The model is calibrated to Egypt and used to study reforms such as reductions in energy subsidies with corresponding reductions in various tax instruments or increases in infrastructure investment. We calculate the new steady states, transition paths to the new steady state and the size of the associated welfare losses or gains. Our main results for a 15 percent cut in energy subsidies are: (i) Steady state GDP drops in most of our experiments as less energy is used in production. (ii) Steady state consumption rises in most of our experiments. (iii) Welfare can rise by as much as 0.6 percent in consumption equivalent terms. (iv) The largest gains in terms of output and of welfare can be obtained when savings from energy subsidy cuts are used to fund additional infrastructure investment. Length: 40 pages Creation-Date: 2013-02 Revision-Date: 2014-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2010-17.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2013 Number: 2013-02 Classification-JEL: E21, E63, H55, J26, J45 Keywords: Energy subsidies, fiscal policy reform, public sector reform, growth. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2013-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Felipe Vasquez Author-X-Name-First: Felipe Author-X-Name-Last: Vasquez Author-Email: fvlavin@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: School of Business and Economics, Universidad del Desarrollo Title: Childcare Availability and Female Labor Force Participation: An Empirical Examination of the Chile Crece Contigo Program Abstract: Few works have examined the relationship between maternal participation in the labor force and the availability of child care in developing countries. Existing papers also tend to rely on relatively simplistic, correlative analysis of the data rather than modeling the joint decision to invest in formal childcare and to choose a level of labor supply. This paper takes advantage of a policy-induced positive shock in the provision of child care to apply instrumental variables in a simultaneous equations context, resulting in estimates that are more rigorous than any currently available in a developing country context. Policymakers are able to optimize their policy choices if they have better information on the elasticity of labor supply with respect to the cost of child care, and we find no evidence that the program is associated with an increase in women's labor supply. Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2013-12 Revision-Date: 2013-12 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2013-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2013 Number: 2013-03 Classification-JEL: J13, J22, O12, H42 Keywords: Female Labor Supply, Child Care, Labor Force, Chile, CASEN, JUNJI. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2013-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@unsw.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: Market Inefficiency, Insurance Mandate and Welfare: U.S. Health Care Reform 2010 Abstract: We quantify the effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) using a stochastic general equilibrium overlapping generations model with endogenous health capital accumulation calibrated to match U.S. data on health spending and insurance take-up rates. We find that the introduction of an insurance mandate and the expansion of Medicaid which are at the core of the ACA increase the insurance take-up rate of workers to almost universal coverage but decrease capital accumulation, labor supply and aggregate output. The penalties and subsidies do reduce the adverse selection problem in private health insurance markets and do counteract the crowding-out effect of the Medicaid expansion. The redistributional measures embedded in the ACA result in welfare gains of low income individuals in poor health, and conversely, in welfare losses of high income individuals in good health. The overall welfare effect depends on the size of the ex-post moral hazard effect and general equilibrium price adjustments. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2014-02 Revision-Date: 2016-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2014-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 2014-01 Classification-JEL: H51, I18, I38, E21, E62 Keywords: Affordable Care Act 2010, insurance mandate, Medicaid, endogenous health capital, life-cycle health spending and financing, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, Grossman health capital. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Comparative Statics, Stability, and Uniqueness Abstract: Consider an economic model whose equilibrium can be represented as the fixed point of a system of differentiable equations. Using the theory of B-matrices, I show that comparative statics are well-behaved if the interactions between the equations are not too large, and the negative interactions are not too varied. When there are only positive interactions, for example when strategic complements prevail in a strategic setting, I prove a version of Samuleson's (1947) Correspondence Principle in that equilibrium is nondecreasing for any positive parameter shock if and only if equilibrium is exponentially stable under discrete time best reply dynamics . If there are only negative interactions, like when strategic substitutes prevail in a game theoretic context, I use the theory of inverse M-matrices to significantly relax Dixit's (1986) conditions under which comparative statics are well-behaved. For every comparative statics result I show that if the conditions apply globally then equilibrium is unique. Applications are provided to differentiated products Cournot oligopoly, market demand with interdependent preferences, and games on fixed networks. Length: 44 pages Creation-Date: 2014-04 Revision-Date: 2015-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2014-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 2014-02 Classification-JEL: D11 Keywords: Correspondence principle, interdependent preferences, oligopoly, networks, M-matrices, inverse M-matrices, B-matrices, P-matrices, global univalence. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Peter K. Hunsberger Author-X-Name-First: Peter Author-X-Name-Last: Hunsberger Author-Email: pkhuns@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Johns Hopkins University Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: What is a Blue Chip Recruit Worth? Estimating the Marginal Revenue Product of College Football Quarterbacks Abstract: A recent National Labor Relations Board ruling declared Northwestern football players employees and gave them the right to unionize. This ruling is part of ongoing scrutiny of The National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA's) model which labels college athletes as amateurs and limits player compensation to grant-in-aid (scholarships). Our paper estimates the marginal revenue product (MRP) of an elite college quarterback using revenue and game level playing data from eight and nine seasons, respectively. Similar to previous studies we show that MRP for elite quarterbacks far exceeds the average value of a scholarship. Our paper also provides two contributions by using a new quarterback rating system and creating an estimate of the expected value of a blue chip college quarterback recruit. The new system is the Total Quarterback Rating (QBR), a metric developed by the Stats & Information Group of ESPN. The measure has a strong win predictive ability and makes important adjustments to identify the quarterback's contribution. We find a one standard deviation increase in QBR adds about 3 wins per season, and each additional win increases a school's football revenue roughly $740,000 compared to the average quarterback, holding a variety of other determining factors constant, including school fixed effects. This suggests a superior quarterback to be worth millions of dollars a season. Teams recruit quarterbacks, however, ex-ante of the player revealing their college ability. Therefore, to estimate the value of a college recruit, we test for differences between quarterbacks rated as blue chip high school prospects and other QBs. We estimate that signing a blue chip quarterback is expected to produce roughly $429,000 dollars in total additional revenue for a college team compared to signing a non-blue chip quarterback. The results show that ex-post estimates of college player value may differ from ex-ante estimates due to the difficulty of predicting which high school players will excel in college. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2014-04 Revision-Date: 2014-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2014-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 2014-03 Classification-JEL: L83, J30 Keywords: College Football, College Sports Revenue, Quarterback. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shantanu Bagchi Author-X-Name-First: Shantanu Author-X-Name-Last: Bagchi Author-Email: sbagchi@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Labor Supply and the Optimality of Social Security Abstract: Traditional economic theory predicts that unfunded social security can be justified on the basis of its ability to efficiently finance retirement, and also for its ability to provide insurance against mortality risk and uninsurable shocks to labor income. In this paper, I demonstrate that the quantitative importance of the traditional roles of social security depends on how household labor supply responds to social security. I build a calibrated general-equilibrium model where social security has a large welfare-improving role, and I show that the distortionary effect on households' labor hours erases virtually all the welfare gains from social security. I also find that this result is robust within the range of labor supply elasticities usually encountered in the macroeconomic literature.. Length: 26 pages Creation-Date: 2014-09 Revision-Date: 2014-09 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2014-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 2014-04 Classification-JEL: E21, H55, J22 Keywords: Labor supply, Social security, Mortality risk, Productivity shock, Insurance, Elasticity. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shantanu Bagchi Author-X-Name-First: Shantanu Author-X-Name-Last: Bagchi Author-Email: sbagchi@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Can Removing the Tax Cap Save Social Security? Abstract: The maximum amount of earnings in a calendar year that can be taxed by U.S. Social Security is currently set at $118,500. In this paper, I examine if removing this cap can solve Social Security's future budgetary problems. Using a calibrated general-equilibrium life-cycle consumption model, I show that under a realistic longevity improvement, removing this cap leads to Social Security benefits declining by less than 3%, compared to almost 15% when the cap is held fixed at its current level. Households for whom the cap expires respond by working and saving less, which reduces labor supply, capital stock, and output, and also reverses some of the initial expansion in Social Security's revenues. Elimination of the cap also makes Social Security more progressive, which has positive insurance effects for households with unfavorable earnings histories, but the higher marginal tax rates impose larger distortions on households that are no longer subject to the cap, which reduces overall welfare. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2014-09 Revision-Date: 2016-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2014-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 2014-05 Classification-JEL: E21, E62, H55 Keywords: Social Security, tax cap, mortality risk, labor income risk, incomplete markets, general equilibrium. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Younoh Kim Author-X-Name-First: Younoh Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Author-Email: ykim18@emich.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Eastern Michigan University Author-Name: Vlad Radoias Author-X-Name-First: Vlad Author-X-Name-Last: Radoias Author-Email: vradoias@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Intra Marriage Bargaining Power and Fertility Decisions for Women in Developing Countries Abstract: Two types of theoretical bargaining models can be employed to study issues on intra marriage bargaining - a competitive and a cooperative bargaining model. While many seem to support the idea that couples make their decisions together in trying to maximize household level welfare, there is no general consensus on which type of model is more appropriate. One particular result that seems to suggest that couples do actually bargain competitively is the result that links fertility decisions to bargaining power. The argument is that women prefer less children than men, and that bargaining power influences fertility. However, we argue, these studies are suffering from endogeneity issues that are not properly instrumented for. We propose instruments for bargaining power based on individual risk and time preferences which affect the threat point and bargaining power of spouses, but not the fertility decisions directly. Using this identification strategy, we show that fertility decisions do not depend on bargaining power, which supports the unitary bargaining model. We argue that the previous results were either not addressing the endogeneity issues at all, or based on invalid instruments that were not fully exogenous. Length: 17 pages Creation-Date: 2014-10 Revision-Date: 2014-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2014-06.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 2014-06 Classification-JEL: D13, J13 Keywords: Bargaining Power, Fertility. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vlad Radoias Author-X-Name-First: Vlad Author-X-Name-Last: Radoias Author-Email: vradoias@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Simon J. Wilkie Author-X-Name-First: Simon Author-X-Name-Last: Wilkie Author-Email: swilkie@usc.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University of Sourthern California Author-Name: Michael A. Williams Author-X-Name-First: Michael Author-X-Name-Last: Williams Author-Email: mwilliams@c-econ.com Author-Workplace-Name: Competition Economics Title: Rules of Evidence and Liability in Contract Litigation: The Efficiency of the General Dynamics Rule Abstract: We study the effects of different rules of evidence and liability in con- tract litigation. When a contracting firm fails to perform, it may blame the buyer for withholding private information. We show that the evidentiary and liability rules used by the Supreme Court in General Dynamics v. U.S. lead to a more efficient outcome than either a strict liability rule or an evidentiary rule requiring the disclosure of the buyer's private information for use by the contractor in litigation. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2014-10 Revision-Date: 2014-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2014-07.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 2014-07 Classification-JEL: D44, D82, H56, H57 Keywords: Procurement auctions, state-secrets privilege, superior knowledge, private information. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vlad Radoias Author-X-Name-First: Vlad Author-X-Name-Last: Radoias Author-Email: vradoias@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: When Price Discrimination Fails - A Principal Agent Problem with Social Influence Abstract: I develop a theoretical model of price discrimination under social influence. I find that social influence gives sellers the incentive to artificially create and maintain excess demand on the market. The rationing occurs mainly at the low end of the market, and sometimes results in full rationing of the low end. Furthermore, the incidence of price discrimination under social influence is much lower than in the absence of it. Social influence lowers the profitability of price discrimination and incentivizes sellers to reduce product variety and to only target the high end of the market, a fact that is consistent with many empirical observations. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2014-10 Revision-Date: 2014-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2014-08.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2014 Number: 2014-08 Classification-JEL: D4, L15, M31 Keywords: Price Discrimination, Social Influence, Excess Demand. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2014-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Jason Mathias Author-X-Name-First: Jason Author-X-Name-Last: Mathias Author-Email: jmathias6@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: City of Baltimore Title: CREP - Cattle Receiving Enhanced Pastures? Investigating Landowner Response to Federal Incentives Abstract: Using enrollment data on the enhanced CRP's river buffer subprogram from 1998 to 2010 we find that participation incentives are larger for cattle pasture and that enrollments increase at a higher rate in counties with large amounts of cattle ranching. Counties producing cattle receive almost twice as much in up-front incentives, and the marginal effect of that incentive is also higher. This is probably due to the fact that cattle ranchers can use heavily subsidized "cost share" funding to improve their ranches. Accounting for the cattle effect also helps explain previous findings of apparent producer preference for up-front payments over a discounted stream of annual benefits. This preference is replicated but disappears when we control for cattle production. Length: 29 pages Creation-Date: 2015-01 Revision-Date: 2015-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2015-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 2015-01 Classification-JEL: H23, Q15, Q24, Q58 Keywords: Agricultural Economics, Agricultural Policy, Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program, Conservation Reserve Program, Landowner Incentives, Subsidy Response, Cattle Ranching. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2015-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kajal Lahiri Author-X-Name-First: Kajal Author-X-Name-Last: Lahiri Author-Email: klahiri@albany.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University at Albany, State University of New York Author-Name: George Monokroussos Author-X-Name-First: George Author-X-Name-Last: Monokroussos Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: European Comission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Forecasting Consumption: The Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors Abstract: We study the role of consumer confidence in forecasting real personal consumption expenditure, and contribute to the extant literature in three substantive ways: First, we reexamine existing empirical models of consumption and consumer confidence not only at the quarterly frequency, but using monthly data as well. Second, we employ real-time data in addition to commonly used revised vintages. Third, we investigate the role of consumer confidence in a rich information context. We produce forecasts of consumption expenditures with and without consumer confidence measures using a dynamic factor model and a large, real-time, jagged-edge data set. In a robust way, we establish the important role of confidence surveys in improving the accuracy of consumption forecasts, manifesting primarily through the services component. During the recession of 2007-09, sentiment is found to have a more pervasive effect on all components of aggregate consumption - durables, non-durables and services. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2015-07 Revision-Date: 2015-07 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2015-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 2015-02 Classification-JEL: C53, E21, E27 Keywords: Forecasting, Consumption, Consumer Sentiment, Factor Models, Kalman Filter, Real-Time Data, Fluctuation test. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2015-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Tamara M. Woroby Author-X-Name-First: Tamara Author-X-Name-Last: Woroby Author-Email: tworoby@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Melissa A. Osborne Groves Author-X-Name-First: Melissa Author-X-Name-Last: Osborne Groves Author-Email: mgroves@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Naturalization of U.S. Immigrants: Why Citizenship Rates Differ by State Abstract: This paper investigates the extent to which the geographic region in which an immigrant resides influences the propensity to naturalize by specifically analyzing the variation in U.S. immigrant citizenship rates across states. By merging Census data with other forms of publically available state level data, we are able to better understand why state naturalization rates in the U.S. vary so dramatically, from a low of about 30% to a high of almost 60%. We find that while applying for citizenship is an individual decision, both institutional and group variables influence this decision. Consistent with prior research, our results indicate that a more favorable economic environment is correlated with higher naturalization rates and that the clustering of Mexicans discourages naturalization. Unique to the literature, our results also indicate that states that are more socially and politically welcoming to immigrants have statistically higher rates of naturalization, and that there are no significant negative effects on naturalization rates in states with larger numbers of undocumented immigrants. Our research contributes to the growing body of literature on naturalization decisions and supports the proposition that attitudes towards immigrants, be they authorized or undocumented, influence the extent to which the foreign born become fuller participants in U.S. society. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2015-10 Revision-Date: 2015-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2015-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 2015-03 Classification-JEL: J61 Keywords: Mexican Immigration, Citizenship, Naturalization. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2015-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Robustness of Forecast Combination in Unstable Environment: A Monte Carlo Study of Advanced Algorithms Abstract: In this paper, we study the behavior and effectiveness of several recently developed forecast combination algorithms in simulated unstable environments, where the performances of individual forecasters are cross-sectionally heterogeneous and dynamically evolving. Our results clearly reveal how different algorithms respond to structural instabilities of different origin, frequency, and magnitude. Accordingly, we propose an improved forecast combina- tion procedure and demonstrate its effectiveness in a real-time forecast combination exercise using the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2015-12 Revision-Date: 2020-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2015-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2015 Number: 2015-04 Classification-JEL: C53, C22, C15 Keywords: Exponential re-weighting, Shrinkage, Estimation error, Performance instability. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2015-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Comparative Statics and Heterogeneity Abstract: This paper elucidates the role played by the heterogeneity of interactions between the endogenous variables of a model in determining the model's behavior. It is known that comparative statics are well-behaved if these interactions are relatively small, but the formal condition imposed on the Jacobian which typically captures this idea--diagonal dominance--ignores the distribution of the interaction terms. I provide a new condition on the Jacobian--mean positive dominance--which better captures a trade-off between the size and heterogeneity of interaction terms. In accord with Samuelson's (1947) correspondence principle, I also show that mean positive dominance yields stability and uniqueness results. Applications are provided to optimization problems, differentiable games, and competitive exchange economies. Length: 45 pages Creation-Date: 2016-01 Revision-Date: 2016-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-01 Classification-JEL: D11 Keywords: comparative statics, heterogeneity, mean positive dominance, correspondence principle, B-matrix, stability, uniqueness, optimization, differentiable games, Cournot oligopoly, general equilibrium. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@unsw.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: Social Health Insurance: A Quantitative Exploration Abstract: We quantitatively explore the economic effects of expanding the public and private components of the US health insurance system. Our analysis uses an overlapping generations model that comprises health risk, labor market risk, and key features of the US health insurance system such as private individual health insurance (IHI), employer sponsored group health insurance (GHI), means-tested public health insurance for low income individuals (Medicaid), and public health insurance for retired individuals (Medicare). Our simulations show that expanding Medicare to all workers—aka universal public health insurance (UPHI)—improves aggregate welfare if the coinsurance rate of UPHI is set to a higher level than the current Medicare coinsurance rate. There exists an optimal coinsurance rate that balances the incentive and insurance trade-off of the UPHI system and maximizes welfare outcomes. Allowing private health insurance to coexist with UPHI plans, lowers the overall fiscal cost of UPHI and results in larger welfare gains. Tax financing instruments matter for welfare outcomes. Using a consumption tax to finance the expansion of public health insurance leads to fewer distortions and improved welfare outcomes compared to income or payroll taxes. If, under the current US system, the government mandates GHI offers to become available to all workers, welfare gains can also be achieved. Length: 72 pages Creation-Date: 2016-02 Revision-Date: 2022-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-02 Classification-JEL: I13, D52, E62, H31 Keywords: Health and income risks, Lifecycle, Incomplete insurance markets, Social insurance, Welfare, Optimal policy, Dynamic general equilibrium. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shantanu Bagchi Author-X-Name-First: Shantanu Author-X-Name-Last: Bagchi Author-Email: sbagchi@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Differential Mortality and the Progressivity of Social Security Abstract: I examine if the positive correlation between wealth and survivorship has any implications for the progressivity of Social Security's benefit-earnings rule. Using a general-equilibrium macroe- conomic model calibrated to the U.S. economy, I show that the optimal Social Security arrange- ment is largely insensitive to wealth-dependent mortality risk. This is because while a more progressive benefit-earnings rule provides increased insurance for households with relatively un- favorable earnings histories, labor supply, savings, and therefore survivorship, their relatively high mortality risk heavily discounts the utility from old-age consumption. I find that these two effects roughly offset each other, yielding nearly identical benefit-earnings rules both with and without differential mortality. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2016-02 Revision-Date: 2016-08 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-03 Classification-JEL: E21, E62, H55 Keywords: Differential mortality, Social Security, taxable maximum, mortality risk, labor income risk, incomplete markets, general equilibrium. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@unsw.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Author-Name: Matthew Chambers Author-X-Name-First: Matthew Author-X-Name-Last: Chambers Author-Email: mchambers@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Aging and Health Financing in the U.S. A General Equilibrium Analysis Abstract: We quantify the effects of population aging on the U.S. healthcare system. Our analysis is based on a stochastic general equilibrium overlapping generations model of endogenous health accumulation calibrated to match pre-2010 U.S. data. We find that population aging not only leads to large increases in medical spending but also a large shift in the relative size of private vs. public insurance. Without the Affordable Care Act (ACA), aging by itself leads to a 40 percent increase in health expenditures by 2060 and a 9.6 percent increase in GDP which is mainly driven by the increase of the fraction of older higher-risk individuals in the economy as well as behavioral responses to aging and the subsequent expansion of the healthcare sector. Aging increases the premium in group-based health insurance (GHI) markets and enrollment in GHI decreases, while the individual-based health insurance (IHI) market, Medicaid and Medicare expand significantly. The size of Medicare will double by 2060 as the elderly dependency ratio increases. Additional funds equivalent to roughly 2.8 percent of GDP are required to finance Medicare and Medicaid. The introduction of the ACA increases the fraction of insured workers to almost 100 percent by 2060, compared to 82 percent without the ACA. This increase is driven by the stabilization of GHI markets and the further expansions of Medicaid and the IHI market. The ACA mitigates the increase of healthcare costs by reducing the number of the uninsured who pay the highest market price for healthcare services. Overall, the ACA adds to the fiscal cost of population aging mainly via the Medicaid expansion. Our findings demonstrate the importance of accounting for behavioral responses, structural changes in the healthcare sector and general equilibrium adjustments when assessing the economy-wide effects of aging. Length: 55 pages Creation-Date: 2016-03 Revision-Date: 2017-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-04 Classification-JEL: C68, H51, I13, J11, E21, E62 Keywords: Population aging, calibrated general equilibrium OLG model, health expenditures, Medicare/Mediaid, Affordable Care Act 2010, Grossman model of health capital, endogenous health spending and financing. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Christopher Cornwell Author-X-Name-First: Christopher Author-X-Name-Last: Cornwell Author-Email: ccornwell@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Mathematics, Towson University Title: A Strong Correspondence Principle for Smooth, Monotone Environments Abstract: In discrete time dynamic systems that are locally monotone, we show that comparative statics are well-behaved if and only if equilibrium is exponentially stable. In addition, subject to boundary conditions but without local monotonicity, we show that the number of equilibria is finite and odd, and if every equilibrium is stable then there is exactly one. The results, which are applied to best response dynamics and adaptive dynamics, expand the scope of the correspondence principle to include a relationship between stability and uniqueness. Length: 17 pages Creation-Date: 2016-03 Revision-Date: 2017-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-05 Classification-JEL: D5, C7 Keywords: correspondence principle, stability, comparative statics, uniqueness, best response dynamics, adaptive dynamics, M-matrix. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Marc F. Bellemare Author-X-Name-First: Marc Author-X-Name-Last: Bellmare Author-Email: mbellema@umn.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota Author-Name: Johanna Fajardo-Gonzalez Author-X-Name-First: Johanna Author-X-Name-Last: Fajardo-Gonazlez Author-Email: fajar016@umn.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Foods and Fads - The Welfare Impacts of Rising Quinoa Prices in Peru Abstract: Riding on a wave of interest in "superfoods" in rich countries, quinoa went in less than a decade from being largely unknown outside of South America to being an upper- class staple in the United States. As a consequence of that rapid rise in the popularity of quinoa, the price of quinoa tripled between 2006 and 2013. We study the impacts of rising quinoa prices on the welfare of Peruvian households. Using 10 years of a large-scale, nationally representative household survey, we combine pseudo- panel and difference-in- differences methods to look at the relationship between (i) the purchase price of quinoa and the value of household consumption, which we use here as a proxy for household welfare, and (ii) household quinoa production and household welfare. We find that increases in the purchase price of quinoa are associated with a significant increase in the welfare of the average household in areas where quinoa is consumed, which suggests that the quinoa price increase has had general equilibrium effects extending to non-producers. We also find that quinoa production is associated with a faster rate of growth of household welfare, but only at the height of the quinoa price boom. Our findings are robust to a number of different specifications. Length: 62 pages Creation-Date: 2016-03 Revision-Date: 2016-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-06.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-06 Classification-JEL: O12, Q12 Keywords: Quinoa, Commodity Price Shocks, Household Welfare, Peru. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Matthew Chambers Author-X-Name-First: Matthew Author-X-Name-Last: Chambers Author-Email: mchambers@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Carlos Garriga Author-X-Name-First: Carlos Author-X-Name-Last: Garriga Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Author-Name: Don E. Schlagenhauf Author-X-Name-First: Don Author-X-Name-Last: Schlagenhauf Author-Email: Author-Workplace-Name: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Title: The Postwar Conquest of the Home Ownership Dream Abstract: The post-WorldWar II witnessed the largest housing boom in recent history. The objective of this paper is to develop a quantitative equilibrium model of tenure choice to analyze the key determinants in the co-movement between home ownership and house prices over the period 1940 to 1960. The parameterized model is consistent with key aggregate and distributional features observed in the 1940 U.S. economy and is capable of accounting for the observed postwar housing boom. The paper shows, both theoretically and quantitatively, that the key to explaining the co- movement is an asymmetric productivity change that favors the goods sector relative to the construction sector. Other factors such as demographics, income risk, and government policy are important determinants of the home ownership rate but have relatively small e¤ects on housing prices. Length: 63 pages Creation-Date: 2016-04 Revision-Date: 2016-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-07.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-07 Classification-JEL: E2, E6 Keywords: Housing Finance, first-time buyers, life-cycle. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Can Basic Maternal Literacy Skills Improve Infant Health Outcomes? Evidence from the Education Act in Nepal Abstract: The National Education System Plan (NESP), which was implemented in 1971, reshaped the edu- cation system of Nepal and increased access to education among females. I use this dramatic change in Nepal's education system as a quasi-natural experiment to identify the effect of maternal literacy skills such as the ability to read, write, and the highest level of schooling on infant and child mortal- ity outcomes. The results suggest that the reform improved educational attainment among females of school-going-age during the time of the reform but had no effect on male's educational attainment. Using within cohort and across district variations in educational outcomes due to the reform, I find that one more year of maternal schooling reduces under five mortality rate by 4.5 percentage points. Length: 68 pages Creation-Date: 2016-04 Revision-Date: 2019-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-08.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-08 Classification-JEL: I10, I26, I15 Keywords: Mother's literacy, infant mortality, returns to education. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: How Efficient are the Current U.S. Beer Taxes? Abstract: This paper examines the status of current beer taxes in the U.S. by questioning how far away the present beer taxes are from the optimal taxes. Following the estimation of tax elasticity, I estimate the lifetime discounted costs that a heavy drinker levies on others through: 1) Years of life lost; 2) Social insurance system; 3) Drunk driving accidents; and 4) Forgone income taxes. The optimal level of beer tax ranges from 17.15 percent to 47.5 percent of the price per drink. Even the conservative estimates suggest that current beer taxes comprise only 16 percent of the external costs. Length: 49 pages Creation-Date: 2016-04 Revision-Date: 2016-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-09.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-09 Classification-JEL: H210, H230, I100 Keywords: Externality, Beer Taxation, Efficiency. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Otto Lenhart Author-X-Name-First: Otto Author-X-Name-Last: Lenhart Author-Email: otto.lenhart@emory.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Emory University Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Effect of the Health Insurance Mandate on Labor Market Activity and Time Allocation: Evidence from the Federal Dependent Coverage Provision Abstract: The primary goal of the federal dependent coverage mandate was to increase health insurance coverage among young adults, the group with the lowest prevalence of health insurance coverage. To understand the full impacts of the federal dependent coverage mandate, it is important to evaluate how the mandate affects labor market activities and time spent away from work among young adults. Using data from the Consumer Population Survey (CPS) and the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) and implementing a difference-in-differences framework, we find: 1) Young adults substitute employer sponsored insurance for dependent coverage, 2) Affected individuals reduce their work time and switch from full- to part-time employment, and 3) The additional time from reduced labor market activity is reallocated towards more time spent on leisure activities. The effects of the mandate on labor market activities are stronger in later years. Furthermore, we show that young adults do not increase the time they spend on activities that could enhance their human capital such as education and health, which reemphasizes potential unintended consequences of the mandate. These findings suggest that future work is necessary to fully understand the overall welfare effects of the policy. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2016-04 Revision-Date: 2016-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-10.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-10 Classification-JEL: I13, J22, I12 Keywords: Dependent coverage mandate, labor market outcomes, time use. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Younoh Kim Author-X-Name-First: Younoh Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Author-Email: ykim18@emich.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Eastern Michigan University Author-Name: Scott Knowles Author-X-Name-First: Scott Author-X-Name-Last: Knowles Author-Email: scottwknowles@gmail.com Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vlad Radoias Author-X-Name-First: Vlad Author-X-Name-Last: Radoias Author-Email: vradoias@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Long-Run Health Consequences of Air Pollution: Evidence from Indonesia's Forest Fires of 1997 Abstract: While many studies in the medical literature documented causal relationships between air pollution and negative health outcomes immediately following exposure, much less is known about the long run health consequences of pollution exposure. Using the 1997 Indonesian forest fires as a natural experiment, we estimate the long term effects of air pollution on health outcomes. We take advantage of the longitudinal nature of the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), which collects detailed individual data on a multitude of health outcomes, in both 1997 and 2007. We find significant negative effects of pollution, which persist in the long run. Men and the elderly are impacted the most, while children seem to recover almost completely from these early shocks. Length: 25 pages Creation-Date: 2016-05 Revision-Date: 2016-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-11.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-11 Classification-JEL: I1, Q53 Keywords: Air Pollution, Health, Indonesia. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-11 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Eastern Michigan University Author-Name: Vanya Slavchevska Author-X-Name-First: Vanya Author-X-Name-Last: Slavchevska Author-Email: vs4030a@student.american.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Consultant, Gender Analysis, FAO, Rome, Italy. Title: Are Cash Transfers the answer for children in Sub-Saharan Africa? A Literature Review Abstract: Early evidence has been ambiguous on the effects of cash transfer programmes on children, but little has focused on Africa. We review the literature on twenty cash transfer schemes, including twelve from Sub-Saharan Africa. Such interventions have shown improvements in household diet and in some cases to agriculture, but have not always improved child health. However, a larger perspective focusing on the first 1000 days of life reveals more opportunities for impact. In particular the opportunity to empower young women to get secondary education and cut adolescent pregnancy rates can improve the health of African children. Cash transfer programmes seem cost effective, though they are not without flaws. Length: 27 pages Creation-Date: 2016-06 Revision-Date: 2016-06 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-12.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-12 Classification-JEL: Q15, I18, I15, J13 Keywords: Social protection, cash transfers, Sub-Saharan Africa, child health, adolescent health. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-12 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Nola Agha Author-X-Name-First: Nola Author-X-Name-Last: Agha Author-Email: nagha@usfca.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Sports Mangement, University of San Francisco Author-Name: Thomas Rhoads Author-X-Name-First: Thomas Author-X-Name-Last: Rhoads Author-Email: trhoads@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The League Standing Effect: The Case of a Split Season in Minor League Baseball Abstract: Split season league design resets standings at the midpoint of the season thus allowing for two periods in which a team can potentially achieve success in a single season. This context allows us to test both the reputation of the first half winner and the league standing effect on demand. Examination of game-level data from the 2010 Southern League reveals fans are unaffected by measures of both team quality and league standing. On the other hand, the first half winners achieved attendance nearly 30% higher in the second half of the season suggesting that at this level of competition winning doesn't matter but winners do. Length: 21 pages Creation-Date: 2016-07 Revision-Date: 2016-07 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-13.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-13 Classification-JEL: L22, L83 Keywords: Demand, minor league baseball, league standing effect, split season. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-13 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kajal Lahiri Author-X-Name-First: Kajal Author-X-Name-Last: Lahiri Author-Email: klahiri@albany.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University at Albany, State University of New York Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Determinants of Consumer Sentiment over Business Cycles: Evidence from the U.S. Surveys of Consumers Abstract: We study the information content of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment as well as its five components. Using household data from the Surveys of Consumers, we identify the main determinants of these indicators and document their varying role over the business cycle. Our results suggest that while at the aggregate level, macroeconomic conditions explain sentiment well, important and additional information is contained at the level of households. We compare the role of objective and subjective information in determining household level sentiment, and show that significant heterogeneity in the absorption of news from local network sources is a major feature of consumer sentiment. The differential interpretation of current macroeconomic conditions is found to be more pervasive in periods of falling sentiment that typically predates business cycle peaks, and thus helps sentiment to foreshadow recessions. Length: 39 pages Creation-Date: 2016-07 Revision-Date: 2016-07 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-14.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-14 Classification-JEL: E27, E27, C25, C55 Keywords: Consumer confidence, Cross-sectional heterogeneity, Asymmetry, News, Recessions. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-14 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Herman Stekler Author-X-Name-First: Herman Author-X-Name-Last: Stekler Author-Email: hstekler@gwu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, George Washington University Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Predicting U.S. Business Cycle Turning Points Using Real-Time Diffusion Indexes Based on a Large Data Set Abstract: This paper considers the issue of predicting cyclical turning points using real-time diffusion indexes constructed using a large data set from March 2005 to September 2014. We construct diffusion indexes at the monthly frequency, compare several smoothing and signal extraction methods, and evaluate predictions based on the indexes. Our finding suggest that diffusion indexes are still effective tools in predicting turning points. Using diffusion indexes, along with good judgement, one would have successfully predicted or at least identified the 2008 recession in real time. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2016-09 Revision-Date: 2016-09 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-15.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-15 Classification-JEL: C43, C53, C55, E37 Keywords: Forecasting recession, real-time data, probability forecast. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-15 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Affordable Care Act and College Enrollment Decisions Abstract: We investigate the effect of the extension of the federal dependent coverage mandate for young adults under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) on the college enrollment decisions of young Americans. The ACA removes the conditionality that young individuals need to be enrolled as full-time students in order to be able to remain on their parents' health insurance past the age of 18 and extends the coverage mandate to age 26 irrespective of student status. This expansion of the coverage mandate changes the incentives for the full-time and part-time college enrollment decisions of young individuals. We use panel data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) for the years 2003–2013 and estimate that the dependent coverage expansion under the ACA decreases the probability to enroll as full-time student by 2 to 3 percentage points. Furthermore we find that part-time college enrollment is unaffected by the new policy. The results from a difference-in-differences model are robust to changes in the model specification and become stronger when we increase the sample overlap between treatment and control groups using trimming based on propensity scores. Length: 46 pages Creation-Date: 2016-10 Revision-Date: 2017-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-16.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-16 Classification-JEL: C35, I23, I10 Keywords: Affordable Care Act, dependent health insurance coverage, youth health insurance, occupational choice, educational choice, survey of income and program participation (SIPP). Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-16 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Erik Nesson Author-X-Name-First: Erik Author-X-Name-Last: Nesson Author-Email: etnesson@bsu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Ball State University Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Effects of False Identification Laws with a Scanner Provision on Underage Alcohol-Related Traffic Fatalities Abstract: We examine the effects of policies aimed at restricting the use of false identification to purchase alcohol on traffic fatalities involving alcohol-impaired underage drivers. We find that the implementation of policies that incentivize alcohol retailers to adopt ID scanners reduces traffic fatalities from accidents involving 16-18 year old drivers with a BAC≥0.08, but we do not find that similar policies like vertical ID laws lead to statistically significant changes in traffic fatalities involving underage impaired drivers. A back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that if all remaining states passed ID scanner laws, the reduction in underage alcohol-related fatal accidents would generate nearly $730 million in annual economic benefits. Length: 38 pages Creation-Date: 2016-10 Revision-Date: 2020-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-17.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-17 Classification-JEL: I12, I18 Keywords: Underage alcohol consumption, Drunk driving, DWI, False ID laws, Scanner provision. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-17 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Animesh Giri Author-X-Name-First: Animesh Author-X-Name-Last: Giri Author-Email: animesh1627@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Cornerstone Research, Washington DC Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Schooling Infrastructure and Female Educational Outcomes in Nepal Abstract: We estimate the impact of increases in schools constructed during the late 1980s and early 1990s on educational outcomes in Nepal. We use a difference-in-differences framework by combining the across- district differences in the number of new schools with variation in exposure to these schools created by the virtue of individuals being of school-going-age. Our results indicate that an additional school constructed (per 1,000 kilometer square) increased the probability to read and write among females by 1.5 percentage points and increased the highest level of schooling attained by 0.12 units but did not affect basic literacy skills among males. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that on average the increase in the number of schools can explain about a fourth of the total differences in the reading and writing outcomes between the treated and control groups of women. These results underscore the continued importance of increasing access to schooling in developing countries like Nepal. Length: 36 pages Creation-Date: 2016-10 Revision-Date: 2016-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-18.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-18 Classification-JEL: I2, O1, H52 Keywords: School construction, access to education, female education, female literacy. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-18 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Effects of Weather on Diarrheal Disease in Peruvian Children: A Geospatial Investigation Abstract: Combining information on household characteristics with data from nearby weather stations, we investigate the effect of fluctuations in temperature and rainfall on the incidence of diarrheal disease among Peruvian children under age 5 in the high altitude sierra region. Considering jointly the role of precipitation and temperature we find that a larger temperature gap, from a higher minimum and/ or lower maximum, means less risk for children. Also we see protective effects of rain in the current month and negative effects of rain in the prior month. Effects are heightened during the rainy season and marginal effects are higher as rainfall amounts rise. Access to indoor drinking water and sanitation seem not to make much difference. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2016-09 Revision-Date: 2019-08 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2016-19.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2016 Number: 2016-19 Classification-JEL: O12, O15, I15, I18 Keywords: Weather, climate, freezing, diarrhea, child health, Peru. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2016-19 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@unsw.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: Health Risk, Insurance and Optimal Progressive Income Taxation Abstract: We study the optimal progressivity of personal income taxes in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model where individuals are exposed to idiosyncratic shocks to labor productivity and health status over the lifecycle. Our results—based on a calibration to the US economy—indicate that both, the presence of health risk and the available insurance institutions have a strong effect on the optimal level of tax progressivity. Given the fragmented and non-universal health insurance system in the US, a welfare maximizing income tax system is substantially more progressive than the current US income tax. The higher progressivity provides additional redistribution and social insurance, especially for unhealthy low income individuals who have limited access to health insurance. When exposure to health risk is removed or reduced by introducing more comprehensive health insurance systems, we observe large decreases in the optimal level of income tax progressivity and the optimal tax system resembles findings from the previous literature. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for the unique characteristics of health risk and the design of the health insurance system when characterizing optimal income taxes. Length: 82 pages Creation-Date: 2017-03 Revision-Date: 2022-11 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2017-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2017 Number: 2017-01 Classification-JEL: E62, H24, I13 Keywords: Health and income risks, Inequality, Social insurance, Tax progressivity, Suits index, Optimal taxation, General equilibrium. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2017-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Younoh Kim Author-X-Name-First: Younoh Author-X-Name-Last: Kim Author-Email: younoh@shsu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Sam Houston State University Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vlad Radoias Author-X-Name-First: Vlad Author-X-Name-Last: Radoias Author-Email: vradoias@shsu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Sam Houston State University Title: Medium- and Long-run Consequences of Pollution on Labor Supply: Evidence from Indonesia's Forest Fires of 1997 Abstract: We use a natural experiment in Indonesia to study the medium- and long-run effects of air pollution on labor supply. We find that exposure to air pollution reduces hours worked and while the medium-run effects are larger in magnitude, some effects do persistent in the long run. More interestingly, we are able to provide some insight regarding the underlying channels that contribute to the reduced labor supply. Own health seems to be the only responsible channel in the long-run, while in the medium-run an additional channel based on dependent care-giving is also important Length: 10 pages Creation-Date: 2017-03 Revision-Date: 2017-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2017-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2017 Number: 2017-02 Classification-JEL: J22, Q53 Keywords: Air Pollution, Working Hours, Indonesia. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2017-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Rashesh Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Rashesh Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: rashesh.shrestha@anu.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University Title: Multigenerational Effects of Education Reform: Mother's Education and Children's Human Capital in Nepal Abstract: The impact of national efforts to increase supply of education, such as Nepal's National Education System Plan, may vary across social groups due to differences in social factors that determine access to and demand for education. In this paper, we study the heterogeneous impact of this reform across gender and caste groups – two important social dimensions in Nepal's context – over two generations. We use data from the Nepal National Population and Housing Census 2011 and implement a difference- in-differences framework that utilizes across district variation in intensity of the reform measured by placement of trained teachers per 100 children and across cohort variation in exposure determined by birth year. We find that the reform improved females' education attainment, but such positive effects are not present among women belonging to lower caste sub-groups. In addition, we find that the reform had positive effects on schooling of the next generation; the multigenerational effects are also concentrated among girls from higher caste households. We validate our main findings by conducting a placebo exercises on a sample of individuals who had surpassed their school going age by the time of the reform. Length: 75 pages Creation-Date: 2017-05 Revision-Date: 2019-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2017-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2017 Number: 2017-03 Classification-JEL: I26, J20, I30 Keywords: Multigenerational Effect, Maternal Education, Children's Human Capital, Schooling. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2017-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: A Necessary and Sufficient Condition for a Unique Maximum with an Application to Potential Games Abstract: Under regularity and boundary conditions which ensure an interior maximum, I show that there is a unique critical point which is a global maximum if and only if the Hessian determinant of the negated objective function is strictly positive at any critical point. Within the large class of Morse functions, and subject to boundary conditions, this local and ordinal condition generalizes strict concavity, and is satisfied by nearly all strictly quasiconcave functions. The result also provides a new uniqueness theorem for potential games. Length: 12 pages Creation-Date: 2017-08 Revision-Date: 2017-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2017-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2017 Number: 2017-04 Classification-JEL: C02, C72 Keywords: optimization, index theory, potential games. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2017-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Rashesh Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Rashesh Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: rashesh.shrestha@eria.org Author-Workplace-Name: Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Title: Intergenerational effect of education reform: mother's education and children's human capital in Nepal Abstract: We examine a potential intergenerational transfer of human capital by investigating the effect of maternal education on children's educational and labor outcomes in the context of a developing country Nepal. To account for endogeneity of mother's education, we use education reform in the 1970s that had differential impact on women due to their year and district of birth. We also account for birth order effects by implementing a triple-difference strategy. The education reform increased schooling of females that were most affected by the reform. Furthermore, an increase in mother's highest level of schooling increased the child's probability of finishing 5th grade only among mothers from a higher caste households. We find modest effects of mother's education on child labor outcomes, with the IV estimate indicating that a year increase in mother's education reduces a child's weekly work by approximately an hour. A lack of intergenerational impact among relatively lower caste households suggests that exclusionary social structure should be considered when promoting maternal education as a medium to improve children's well-being. Length: 54 pages Creation-Date: 2017-10 Revision-Date: 2017-10 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2017-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2017 Number: 2017-05 Classification-JEL: I10, I26, I15 Keywords: Intergenerational effect, maternal education, children human capital, schooling. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2017-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Erin K. Fletcher Author-X-Name-First: Erin Author-X-Name-Last: Flether Author-Email: erinkfletcher@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Independent, No Affiliation Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Savannah Wilhelm Author-X-Name-First: Savannah Author-X-Name-Last: Wilhelm Author-Email: swilhe2@students.towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Towson University Title: Violence Against Children in Nyarugusu Refugees Camp: Reporting and Perceptions Across Generations Abstract: There are over two million displaced children worldwide living in established refugee camps. Many of these children have escaped violent conflict in their country, but still are victims of violence in camps. Yet, little is known about this violence and how camp residents subsequently react to it. We examine the issue of reporting violence using a sample of over 300 child-parent pairs of Burundian and Congolese refugees residing in Nyarugusu camp in Tanzania. To elicit social norms around reporting violence against children we use fictional vignettes of violent situations with randomized characteristics against a hypothetical child to measure parents' and children's perceptions of when children will report violence. Parents and children have similar beliefs that the vignette victims are more likely to report violence in school than in other locations. One contrast is that parents believe victims are more likely to report sexual violence than other types of violence while children do not. Additionally, we find a strong relationship between a parent and their child's beliefs of when the hypothetical victim would report violence. Length: 34 pages Creation-Date: 2018-03 Revision-Date: 2018-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2018-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2018 Number: 2018-01 Classification-JEL: F22, O15 Keywords: Violence, children, refugees, Nyarugusu, refugee camp, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2018-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shantanu Bagchi Author-X-Name-First: Shantanu Author-X-Name-Last: Bagchi Author-Email: sbagchi@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: James Feigenbaum Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Feigenbaum Author-Email: j.feigen@aggiemail.usu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Utah State University Title: Annuity Markets and Capital Accumulation Abstract: We examine how the absence of annuities in financial markets affects capital accumulation in a two-period overlapping generations model. Our findings indicate that the effect on capital is ambiguous in general equilibrium, because there are two competing mechanisms at work. On the one hand, the absence of annuities increases the price of old-age consumption relative to the price of early-life consumption. This induces a substitution effect that reduces saving and capital, and an income effect that has the opposite effect as households want to consume less when young, causing them to save more. On the other hand, accidental bequests originate from the assets of the deceased under missing annuity markets. The bequest received in early life always has a positive income effect on saving, but the bequest received in old age, conditional on survival, is effectively a partial annuity with both substitution and income effects. We find that when the desire to smooth consumption is high, the income effects dominate, so the capital stock always increases when annuity markets are missing. However, when the desire to smooth consumption is low, the substitution effects dominate, and the capital stock decreases with missing annuity markets. Length: 10 pages Creation-Date: 2018-04 Revision-Date: 2018-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2018-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2018 Number: 2018-02 Classification-JEL: D15, D52, E21 Keywords: Mortality risk, frictionless annuities, accidental bequests, savings, capital stock. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2018-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Abhiman Das Author-X-Name-First: Abhiman Author-X-Name-Last: Das Author-Workplace-Name: Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad Author-Name: Kajal Lahiri Author-X-Name-First: Kajal Author-X-Name-Last: Lahiri Author-Email: klahiri@albany.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University at Albany, State University of New York Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Inflation Expectations in India: Learning from Household Tendency Surveys Abstract: Using a large household survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India since 2005, we estimate the dynamics of aggregate inflation expectations over a volatile inflation regime. A simple average of the quantitative responses produces biased estimates of the official inflation data. We therefore estimate expectations by quantifying the reported directional responses. For quantification, we use the Hierarchical Ordered Probit model, in addition to the balance statistic. We find that the quantified expectations from qualitative forecasts track the actual inflation rate better than the averages of the quantitative forecasts, highlighting the filtering role of qualitative tendency surveys. We also report estimates of disagreement among households. The proposed approach is particularly suitable in emerging economies where inflation tends to be high and volatile. Length: 41 pages Creation-Date: 2018-08 Revision-Date: 2018-08 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2018-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2018 Number: 2018-03 Classification-JEL: C25, D84, E3 Keywords: Hierarchical ordered probit model, Quantification, Tendency survey, Disagreement, Indian inflation. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2018-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kajal Lahiri Author-X-Name-First: Kajal Author-X-Name-Last: Lahiri Author-Email: klahiri@albany.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University at Albany, State University of New York Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: International Propagation of Shocks: A Dynamic Factor Model Using Survey Forecasts Abstract: This paper studies the pathways for the propagation of shocks across G7 and major Asia-Pacific countries using multi-horizon forecasts of real GDP growth from 1995 to 2017. We show that if the forecasts are efficient in the long run, results obtained using the forecasts are comparable to those obtained from the actual outturns. We measure global business cycle connectedness and study the impact of country- specific shocks as well as common international shocks using a panel factor structural VAR model. Our results suggest strong convergence of business cycles within the group of industrialized countries and the group of developing economies during non-recessionary periods. In particular, we find increased decoupling between the industrialized and developing economies after the 2008 recession. However, the direction of shock spillovers during recessions and other crisis periods are varied, depending on the nature and origin of the episode. Length: 46 pages Creation-Date: 2018-09 Revision-Date: 2018-09 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2018-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2018 Number: 2018-04 Classification-JEL: F41, F42, E32, C33 Keywords: GDP growth, business cycle connectedness, transmission of shocks, common international shocks, panel VAR model, Blue Chip Surveys. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2018-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Rashesh Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Rashesh Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: rashesh.shrestha@eria.org Author-Workplace-Name: Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) Title: The Combined Role of Subsidy and Discussion Intervention in Demand for a Stigmatized Products Abstract: This paper studies the joint role of subsidization and group discussion intervention in increasing the demand for sanitary pads – a product that is widely available but whose demand may be curtailed due to the psychological cost associated with menstrual stigmatization. The study deploys a field experiment in Nepal to randomly allocate discount coupons of various values so that participants face exogeneous variation in the effective price of sanitary pads. In addition, a randomly selected group of women in the sample participate in menstrual health-related group discussion intervention. The findings suggest that an increase in subsidy level increases the probability of adoption across both groups of women – those receiving only a subsidy and those participating in the discussion intervention coupled with a subsidy. Also, women participating in the discussion intervention have a higher adoption rate. The effects of group discussion intervention are concentrated among women with high psychological cost, whose purchase decisions are more likely to be affected by societal stigma. The results suggest that combining a subsidy with group discussion could provide a cost-effective strategy to increase the adoption of health technology whose demand is constrained by social norms. Length: 78 pages Creation-Date: 2018-11 Revision-Date: 2023-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2018-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2018 Number: 2018-05 Classification-JEL: I15, I26, D12, O33 Keywords: Price subsidies, societal stigma and awareness, estimating elasticity, menstrual health. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2018-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Updates to Household Inflation Expectations: Signal or Noise? Abstract: Using data from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations, we examine the information content of the updates to household inflation expectations. We find that, although consumers frequently revise their expectations, the adjustments are largely uninformative. Length: 10 pages Creation-Date: 2019-05 Revision-Date: 2019-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2019-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2019 Number: 2019-01 Classification-JEL: E31, D82, D84 Keywords: Inflation expectations, revisions to expectations, household surveys, rational inattention. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2019-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Cigarette Prices and Driving Fatalities Among Youths Abstract: Deaths from motor vehicle crashes are a leading cause of unintentional deaths in the United States. This paper investigates the effect of increases in cigarette taxes and prices following the Master Settlement Agreement (MSA) on non-alcohol and alcohol-related motor vehicle fatalities among youths. I find that increases in cigarette taxes and prices are associated with a reduction in non-alcohol related accidents between 1998 and 2006 among 16-to-20 year olds. Length: 16 pages Creation-Date: 2019-08 Revision-Date: 2019-08 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2019-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2019 Number: 2019-02 Classification-JEL: I10, I12, I18 Keywords: Cigarette Taxes and Prices, Driving Fatalities, Externalities. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2019-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Maternal Education and Infant Health Gradient: New Answers to Old Questions Abstract: By using data from the National Vital Statistics System, this study provides an in-depth investigation of the well-documented mother's education-infant health gradient. The study allows for differential relationship between mother's education and infant health outcomes across localities based on income status by using birthweight and low birthweight as health measures. The results show that mother's education-infant birth-weight relationship is more concentrated at relatively poor geographic areas. This can partially be explained by increases in utilization of health services among educated mothers residing in poorer areas compared to mothers with lower levels of education. Although the magnitude of education-health gradient has decreased in recent years, the gradient is still more pronounced in poorer localities. Access to health care during pregnancy, measured by adequacy of care, has improved particularly among less educated mothers living in poorer areas. However, smoking participation during pregnancy has declined substantially among less educated mothers across all geographic localities in recent years. Additionally, mother's education-infant health gradient is similar across black and white race groups. Length: 66 pages Creation-Date: 2019-08 Revision-Date: 2020-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2019-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2019 Number: 2019-03 Classification-JEL: I10, I26, I30 Keywords: Returns to Education, Infant Health, Birthweight, Poverty. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2019-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: George Monokroussos Author-X-Name-First: George Author-X-Name-Last: Monokroussos Author-Email: monokroussos@gmail.com Author-Workplace-Name: Amazon - Seattle Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Nowcasting in Real Time Using Popularity Priors Abstract: We construct a "Google Recession Index" (GRI) using Google Trends data on internet search popularity, which tracks the public's attention to recession-related keywords in real time. We then compare nowcasts made with and without this index using both a standard dynamic factor model and a Bayesian approach with alternative prior setups. Our results indicate that using the Bayesian model with GRI-based "popularity priors" we could identify the 2008Q3 turning point in real time, without sacrificing the accuracy of the nowcasts over the rest of the sample periods. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2020-02 Revision-Date: 2020-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2020-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2020 Number: 2020-01 Classification-JEL: C11, C22, C53, E37, E52 Keywords: Gibbs Sampling, Factor Models, Kalman Filter, Real-Time Data, Google Trends Monetary Policy, Great Recession. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2020-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shantanu Bagchi Author-X-Name-First: Shantanu Author-X-Name-Last: Bagchi Author-Email: sbagchi@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Health Risk and the Welfare Effects of Social Security Abstract: We quantify the importance of idiosyncratic health risk in a calibrated general-equilibrium model of Social Security. We construct an overlapping-generations model with rational-expectations households, idiosyncratic labor income and health risk, profit-maximizing firms, incomplete insurance markets, and a government that provides pensions and health insurance. We calibrate this model to the U.S. economy and perform two sets of computational experiments: (i) we decrease the size of Social Security, and (ii) we modify the progressivity of Social Security's benefit-earnings rule. We find that cutting Social Security's payroll tax in general equilibrium increases overall welfare, but by a lesser extent when health risk is present. When we modify the progressivity of Social Security's benefit-earnings rule, we find that a lump-sum benefit unrelated to past income increases overall welfare, but by a larger extent in the presence of health risk. A linear (fully proportional) benefit-earnings rule, on the other hand, reduces overall welfare, but also by a larger extent in the presence of health risk. Together, our results suggest that Social Security's implicit insurance is more valuable for low- and medium-income households when health risk is present in the model environment. Length: 64 pages Creation-Date: 2020-04 Revision-Date: 2022-07 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2020-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2020 Number: 2020-02 Classification-JEL: E62, E21, H31, H55, I14 Keywords: Health risk, Social Security, benefit-earnings rule, consumption smoothing, general equilibrium. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2020-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Coronavirus Infections and Deaths by Poverty Status: The Effects of Social Distancing Abstract: We study the spread of COVID-19 infections and deaths by county poverty level in the US. In the beginning of the pandemic, counties with either very low poverty levels or very high poverty levels reported the highest numbers of cases. A U-shaped relationship prevails for counties with high population density while among counties with low population density, only poorer counties report high incidence rates of COVID-19. Second, we discuss the pattern of infections spreading from higher to lower income counties. Third, we show that stay-at-home mandates caused significantly higher reductions in mobility in high income counties that experienced adverse weather shocks than counties that did not. These effects are not present in counties with high poverty rates. Using weather shocks in combination with stay-at-home mandates as an instrument for social distancing, we find that measures taken to promote social distancing helped curb infections in high income counties but not in low income counties. These results have important policy implications for containing the spread of infectious diseases in the future. Length: 47 pages Creation-Date: 2020-05 Revision-Date: 2020-12 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2020-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2020 Number: 2020-03 Classification-JEL: I14, I18, I32 Keywords: Coronavirus, pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, heterogeneous health effects, infections by poverty status, death rates by poverty status. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2020-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Healthcare Reform and Gender Specific Infant Mortality in Rural Nepal Abstract: Abstract We estimate to what extent a large scale health care reform disproportionately affects the mortality rate of boys in the context of a developing country with cultural preferences favoring boys. We use arguably exogenous variations due to a health care reform--the National Health Policy--which was implemented in Nepal in 1991 along with data from the Nepal Living Standard Survey 1996 and estimate that improved quality of primary health care facilities (by one standard deviation) reduces the mortality rate of infant boys by 3.43 percentage points but does not affect the mortality rate of infant girls. Our analysis points to societal gender preferences for sons and the consequent neglect of daughters' health as potential drivers of some of the observed differences in mortality between genders and highlights the important role of cultural norms in shaping the outcomes of large scale health care reforms. Length: 71 pages Creation-Date: 2020-06 Revision-Date: 2022-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2020-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2020 Number: 2020-04 Classification-JEL: C35, I23, I10, I18 Keywords: Infant and child mortality, gender specific health investment, health inequality by gender, access to health care in developing nation. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2020-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Kajal Lahiri Author-X-Name-First: Kajal Author-X-Name-Last: Lahiri Author-Email: klahiri@albany.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, University at Albany, State University of New York Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Nordhaus Test with Many Zeros Abstract: We reformulate the Nordhaus test as a friction model where the large number of zero revisions are treated as censored, i.e., unknown values inside a small region of "imperceptibility." Using Blue Chip individual forecasts of U.S. real GDP growth, inflation, and unemployment over 1985-2020, we find pervasive over- reaction to news at most of the monthly forecast horizons from 24 to 1, but the degree of inefficiency is very small. The updaters, i.e., those who make non-zero revisions, are not found to perform better than their "inattentive" peers do. Length: 11 pages Creation-Date: 2020-06 Revision-Date: 2020-06 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2020-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2020 Number: 2020-05 Classification-JEL: C53, E27, E37 Keywords: Nordhaus test, Expectations updating, Forecast efficiency, Fixed-event forecasts, Inattentive forecasters. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2020-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Estimating Transition Probabilities Between Health States Using U.S. Longitudinal Survey Data Abstract: We use data from two representative U.S. household surveys, the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) and the Health and Retirement Study (RAND-HRS) to estimate transition probability matrices between health states over the lifecycle from age 20–95. We compare non-parametric counting methods and parametric methods where we control for individual characteristics as well as time and cohort effects. We align two year transition probabilities from HRS with one year transition probabilities in MEPS using a stochastic root method assuming a Markov structure. We find that the non-parametric counting method and the regression specifications based on ordered logit models produce similar results over the lifecycle. However, the counting method overestimates the probabilities of transitioning into bad health states. In addition, we find that young women have worse health prospects than their male counterparts but once individuals get older, being female is associated with transitioning into better health states with higher probabilities than men. We do not find significant differences of the conditional health transition probabilities between African Americans and the rest of the population. We also find that the lifecycle patterns are stable over time. Finally, we discuss issues with controlling for time effects, sample attrition, the Markov assumption, and other modeling issues that can arise with categorical outcome variables. Length: 83 pages Creation-Date: 2020-11 Revision-Date: 2021-06 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2020-06.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2020 Number: 2020-06 Classification-JEL: I10, C14, C23, C25, D15 Keywords: Lifecycle profiles of health transition probabilities, Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), Health and Retirement Study (RAND-HRS), Markov health transition matrices, conditional health transition probabilities, age-time-cohort effects. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2020-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Streaming Stimulates the Live Concert Industry: Evidence from YouTube Abstract: I exploit the removal of Warner Music content from YouTube in the first three quarters of 2009 as a plausible natural experiment to investigate the impact of streaming on live concert sales. I find that this Warner-YouTube blackout had statistically and economically negative effects on Warner artists relative to non-Warner artists. Specifically, relative revenues and prices were lower and relative attendance was not higher. These effects were stronger among artists who recently had a song in the Billboard Hot 100 and among those who were more frequently searched on YouTube. These findings suggest that the diffusion of streaming has stimulated the demand for live concerts. The evidence is also consistent with a differentiated Bertrand model of ticket pricing in which prices are strategic complements and prices and streaming penetration gives rise to increasing differences in the artist profit function. More broadly, the paper is an example of how the results from the monotone comparative statics literature can be adapted for use with difference-in-differences estimation. Length: 42 pages Creation-Date: 2021-01 Revision-Date: 2021-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2021-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2021 Number: 2021-01 Classification-JEL: D2, L2, L8, Z11 Keywords: Live music, streaming, digitization, monotone comparative statics, refutability. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2021-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Melissa Groves Author-X-Name-First: Melissa Author-X-Name-Last: Groves Author-Email: mgroves@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Grade Disparities in Principles of Microeconomics Before and During COVID-19 Abstract: Student performance in economics has long suffered from racial, gender, and socioeconomic disparities at all levels, from introductory college courses to PhD graduate numbers. In March 2020, COVID-19 forced most universities to deliver all courses online. This shift online had the potential to increase grade disparities present along racial, gender, and socioeconomic lines in all college courses. Using data from Fall 2019 to Spring 2021 with 3,000 students enrolled in principles of microeconomics classes at a large non-flagship public university, we find evidence of grade disparities based on these key demographics. First, we show that disparities in microeconomics classes were similar to students' grades in all other classes, suggesting that what we see in economics is just a reflection of problems across many disciplines. Second, we demonstrate that the disparities remain relatively unchanged, even in the second year of the pandemic when classes continued online. These results suggest that policy and programmatic changes aimed at addressing disparities would be more effective if aimed at the university as a whole rather than just economics courses. Length: 33 pages Creation-Date: 2021-11 Revision-Date: 2021-11 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2021-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2021 Number: 2021-02 Classification-JEL: A22, I21, I24 Keywords: Educational Access, Inequality, Teaching Methods for Economic Principles. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2021-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Uncertainty and Disagreement of Inflation Expectations: Evidence from Household-Level Qualitative Survey Responses Abstract: We propose a procedure that jointly estimates expectation, uncertainty, and disagreement using a flexible hierarchical ordered response model and individual-level qualitative data. Based on the Michigan survey of US consumers, our results reveal how their inflation expectations and the associated uncertainty are affected by various factors, including their perceptions of economic conditions, recollections of relevant news reports, and sociodemographic characteristics. An examination of the dynamics of inflation uncertainty and disagreement produces evidence in support of using the latter as a proxy of the former. However, our results also highlight important episodes (such as the start of the COVID pandemic) in which the two series diverge. Length: 42 pages Creation-Date: 2021-12 Revision-Date: 2021-12 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2021-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2021 Number: 2021-03 Classification-JEL: C53, E31, D80 Keywords: Joint estimation, Quantification, Household demographics, Subjective news shocks, Hierarchical ordered response model. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2021-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Leah S. Sine Author-X-Name-First: Leah Author-X-Name-Last: Sine Author-Email: lsine1@students.towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Towson University Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Does a Governor's Gender and Political Party Affect a State's GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Pandemic? Abstract: In a vacuum of federal policies during the COVID crisis, U.S. state governors who were female and/or Democrats were more likely to enact public health policies that reduced COVID deaths. Using 2005–2020 quarterly data, we test whether states with female and Democratic governors experienced lower GDP growth rates during COVID. We find that states with Democratic governors experienced annual GDP growth two percentage points lower than states with Republican governors in 2020, with statistically weaker results for female governors. The two-point reduction in GDP growth is less than the economic value of estimated lives saved due to these policies. Length: 35 pages Creation-Date: 2022-01 Revision-Date: 2022-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2022-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2022 Number: 2022-01 Classification-JEL: H12, H70, H75 Keywords: Covid, Governors, Female Leadership. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2022-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Revisiting the Effects of Cigarette Taxes on Smoking Outcomes Abstract: This study reassesses the efficacy of cigarette taxation in curtailing smoking by leveraging recent advancements in the difference-in-differences (DiD) literature to account for hetero- geneous treatment effects. Using data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Selected Metropolitan/Micropolitan Area Risk Trend (BRFSS SMART) for the sample periods 2004-2010 and 2015-2020, the study reveals three key findings. Firstly, the TWFE estimate for the 2004-2010 sample is only 48% of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) estimate obtained through the DiD framework. Secondly, event-study type estimates demonstrate a gradual increase in magnitude following the treatment year, highlighting dynamic treatment effects overlooked by the TWFE estimate. Third, the ATT estimate for the 2015-2020 sample is approximately 66% of the ATT estimate for the 2004-2010 sample. Overall, the study underscores the potential bias towards zero in elasticity estimates when relying solely on TWFE models. Length: 66 pages Creation-Date: 2022-10 Revision-Date: 2024-06 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2022-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2022 Number: 2022-02 Classification-JEL: I10, I18, D00, B23, H20 Keywords: Cigarette taxation, Difference-in-Differences, Treatment heterogeneity, Dynamic treatment effects, Elasticity. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2022-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shantanu Bagchi Author-X-Name-First: Shantanu Author-X-Name-Last: Bagchi Author-Email: sbagchi@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Means Testing and Social Security in the U.S. Abstract: This paper uses a heterogeneous-agent overlapping-generations model to examine the fiscal and distributional consequences of introducing a means test in U.S. Social Security. I find that a means test, i.e. conditioning benefit payments on a household's earnings and/or assets, leads to a higher implicit tax on old-age resources, but has desirable distributional effects. A 75% cut in the benefits to households with earnings more than 200% of the median leads to a 2.3% reduction in the overall size of Social Security, but has almost no effect on the average benefit level. A fiscally comparable payroll tax cut, on the other hand, leads to an across-the-board decline of 2% decline in the benefits. Finally, an asset-based means test causes a decline of 1% in average benefits, but has a large negative effect on the accidental bequests left behind by deceased households. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2023-03 Revision-Date: 2023-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-01 Classification-JEL: E21, E62, H55 Keywords: Health risk, Social Security, benefit-earnings rule, consumption smoothing, general equilibrium. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Long Shadow of American Slavery: Its Influence on the Affordable Care Act Abstract: This study investigates the relationship between slavery and the efficacy of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) in the American South. Using a Causal Forest approach, the results reveal heterogeneous treatment effects of the ACA-Medicaid expansion, with larger reductions in unin- sured rates concentrated in counties with low cotton suitability measures. In Medicaid expansion states, counties more reliant on slavery experienced lower reductions in uninsured rates following the ACA, primarily driven by lower Medicaid coverage among poor Whites. The evidence sug- gests that current political preferences, as explained by determinants of slavery such as cotton suitability and malaria stability indices, serve as a pathway linking the influence of slavery to the health reform. Moreover, the influence of slavery is attenuated in counties that underwent faster mechanization in the mid-1990s. Overall, findings imply that the legacy of slavery has hindered the implementation of the ACA in the South. Length: 63 pages Creation-Date: 2023-04 Revision-Date: 2024-07 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-02 Classification-JEL: P00, P43, P46, I14, D02, B15 Keywords: The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), Slavery, Institution, ACA-related preferences, ACA efficacy, American South, Politics. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: The Effects of Health and Local Unemployment on Job Promotions Abstract: We study the effects of work limiting health issues in combination with adverse local economic conditions on career advancement using a US panel data set that follows a cohort of people from 1987 (ages 22--30) to 2014 (ages 49--57). We find that work limiting health issues decrease the probability of promotions at the current job only if the individual lives in an area with high levels of unemployment. This effect is driven by individuals who do not or cannot move out of these areas. The combination of bad health and poor economic conditions significantly lowers the on-the-job promotion probabilities of workers between age 30--40 and is weaker and not significant for younger workers or workers past age 50. Gender and race play a minor role but the negative effect of work limiting health issues on promotions---conditional on living in areas with high unemployment---are enduring and can still be measured 6 years later. The low frequency of our data (biennial) does not allow us to establish a direct relationship between poor health during economic recessions on the probability of career advancement. Length: 88 pages Creation-Date: 2023-06 Revision-Date: 2024-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-03 Classification-JEL: M51, J71, J62, J63, J16 Keywords: Job promotions, health shocks, lifecycle labor market effects, local area unemployment. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Onyedikachukwu Onyemeziem Author-X-Name-First: Onyedikachukwu Author-X-Name-Last: Onyemeziem Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: William Corcoran Author-X-Name-First: William Author-X-Name-Last: Corcoran Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Menarche, Marriage Age, Education, and Employment in Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia Abstract: Child marriage is still relatively common in low-income countries, with 40% of Sub-Saharan African and 25% of Middle Eastern girls marrying before the age of 18. Case studies in individual countries have shown that delaying marriage for girls is associated with more years of schooling and a higher probability of employment. Many of these studies have used menarche, the age of a girl's first menstrual period, as an instrument for marriage age to avoid omitted variable bias. This paper tests and demonstrates the external validity of these case studies across 12 countries using data from demographic health surveys. We show that age at menarche is a potential instrument for marriage age in the pooled sample and stronger in countries with higher rates of child marriage. The results support previous findings that delayed marriage is associated with a higher number of years of school completed and probability of employment, with a few exceptions where average marriage age is higher. This work adds to the evidence base for policy to increase marriage age for the long-term well-being of women in low-income countries. Length: 32 pages Creation-Date: 2023-09 Revision-Date: 2023-09 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-04 Classification-JEL: O12, I25 Keywords: Child Marriage, Women's Menarche, Menarche. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Gabriel Mathy Author-X-Name-First: Gabriel Author-X-Name-Last: Mathy Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, American University Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Could Diffusion Indexes Have Forecasted the Great Depression? Abstract: Was the Depression forecastable? In this paper, we test how effective diffusion indexes are in forecasting the deepest recession in U.S. history: the Great Depression. Moore (1961) considered the effectiveness of diffusion indexes historically, including for the Great Depression, though he only did so retrospectively and did not forecast out-of-sample. We reconstruct Moore's diffusion indexes for this historical period and make our own comparable indexes for out-of-sample predictions. We find that diffusion indexes, including the horizon-specific ones we produce, can nowcast turning points fairly well. Forecasting remains difficult, but our results suggest that the initial downturn in 1929 may be forecastable months before the Great Crash. This is a novel result, as previous authors had generally found the Depression was not forecastable. Length: 40 pages Creation-Date: 2023-09 Revision-Date: 2023-09 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-05 Classification-JEL: N12, C53, E32, E37 Keywords: Diffusion Index, Great Depression, Forecasting. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alexa Prettyman Author-X-Name-First: Alexa Author-X-Name-Last: Prettyman Author-Email: cprettyman@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Underreporting Child Maltreatment during the Pandemic: Evidence from Colorado Abstract: As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, schools closed abruptly in March 2020, and Colorado issued a stay-at-home order during the month of April. Subsequently, child maltreatment reporting dropped by 31 percent. This paper documents the decline in referrals and reports during 2020 and 2021 in Colorado and predicts counterfactual estimates using two strategies. One strategy assumes the underlying behavior for child maltreatment was unchanged from 2019 to 2020 and 2021, while the second strategy assumes the economic distress and protective factors brought about by the pandemic altered the underlying prevalence of child maltreatment. Consequently, these two approaches yield similar results when investigating referrals, but they differ when investigating screened-in referrals and substantiated reports. I find that the largest reduction in reporting comes from the stay-at-home order, followed by school closings. Lastly, counterfactual estimates suggest that these missed children were suffering from neglect and not abuse. These findings quantify another hardship brought about by the pandemic, underreporting child maltreatment, and underscore the role mandatory reporters play in detecting child maltreatment. Length: 40 pages Creation-Date: 2023-09 Revision-Date: 2023-09 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-06.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-06 Classification-JEL: H12,H75, I18, I31, J12 Keywords: Child maltreatment, COVID-19, Underreporting, Colorado, Stay-at-home order. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Chung Tran Author-X-Name-First: Chung Author-X-Name-Last: Tran Author-Email: chung.tran@unsw.edu.au Author-Workplace-Name: Research School of Economics, The Australian National University Title: Health Heterogeneity, Portfolio Choice and Wealth Inequality Abstract: We investigate implications of health heterogeneity for savings, portfolio choice, wealth accumulation and inequality over the lifecycle. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID 1984–2019) and the Health and Retirement Study (HRS 1992–2018), we first document the long-lasting effects of poor health during the peak earnings period between age 45–55 on the lifecycle patterns of stock market participation and asset portfolio composition across health status in the US. Next, we quantify the importance of this health-wealth portfolio channel using a structural lifecycle model with elastic labor supply, asset portfolio choice, and household heterogeneity in health status, health expenditure, health insurance, and earnings ability. Our results indicate that the presence of portfolio choice with heterogeneous returns significantly amplifies the effects of poor health on wealth accumulation over the lifecycle and wealth inequality. In the model, health insurance, in addition to its traditional role of mitigating exposure to health expenditure shocks, encourages investments into stocks, resulting in relatively lower wealth gaps at retirement. Our results show that reforming Medicare, Medicaid and employer-sponsored health insurance programs can have large impacts on health-wealth inequality in our multi-asset environment with health risk and non-universal health insurance. Length: 140 pages Creation-Date: 2023-09 Revision-Date: 2024-07 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-07.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-07 Classification-JEL: G41, G51, G52, E21, H21, I13, I14 Keywords: Health and income risks, Health insurance, Heterogeneity, Lifecycle savings, Risky and safe assets, Asset portfolio, Inequality. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Finn Christensen Author-X-Name-First: Finn Author-X-Name-Last: Christensen Author-Email: fchristensen@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Comparative Statics for Difference-in-Differences Abstract: In a model with spillovers, consider the difference in the impact of a positive shock on average outcomes among the treated and untreated, or the marginal average effect of treatment among the treated with spillovers (MATTS). MATTS is positive if, and only if, the negated Jacobian inverse of the equilibrium system is a B-matrix by columns. This condition is also sufficient to answer traditional comparative statics questions. I also give several sufficient, and sometimes necessary, conditions on the noninverted Jacobian–which correspond to common modeling assumptions-under which its inverse is a B-matrix by columns. Sign restrictions on MATTS are testable because the sample difference-in-differences is an unbiased estimator for MATTS from a superpopulation perspective. I also show that MATTS generalizes the ATT and the ATE when interference, or spillovers, are present. I apply the results to oligopoly and contests. Length: 46 pages Creation-Date: 2023-11 Revision-Date: 2025-04 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-08.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-08 Classification-JEL: C31, C33, C65, C72, D21, L21 Keywords: Comparative statics, difference-in-differences, interference, spillovers, profit maximization hypothesis, B-matrix, symmetric games. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yongchen Zhao Author-X-Name-First: Yongchen Author-X-Name-Last: Zhao Author-Email: yzhao@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Uncertainty of Household Inflation Expectations: Reconciling Point and Density Forecasts Abstract: We examine the uncertainty of household inflation expectations using matched point and density forecasts from the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations. We argue that using in- formation from both types of forecasts allows for better estimates of uncertainty. Since the two types of forecasts may be inconsistent, we propose to reconcile them by matching the mean (or the median) of individual density forecasts and the corresponding point forecasts using exponential tilting. The reconciled densities provide uncertainty measures that are strictly consistent with the point forecasts by construction. We compare the uncertainty of inflation expectations derived from the reconciled densities with that derived from the original densities. Our results suggest that, at the micro-level, the uncertainty of consistent forecasts tends to be lower after reconciliation, while that of inconsistent forecasts tends to be higher. Aggregate uncertainty measured by averaging individual uncertainty is likely underestimated when using the survey responses directly, without reconciliation. This study contributes to the literature on the measurement of uncertainty and provides insights into the interplay of matched point and density forecasts in this context. Length: 13 pages Creation-Date: 2023-12 Revision-Date: 2023-12 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2023-09.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2023 Number: 2023-09 Classification-JEL: C53, E31, D12, C83, D84 Keywords: Uncertainty measurement, Exponential tilting, Household survey, Consumer sentiment. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2023-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alexa Prettyman Author-X-Name-First: Alexa Author-X-Name-Last: Prettyman Author-Email: cprettyman@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: States of Opportunity for Youth Aging Out of Foster Care Abstract: Over 20,000 youth age out of foster care each year in the United States facing various hardships. Research demonstrates that extended foster care beneficially impacts youth aging out of care; however, it is less clear which states assist these youth. This descriptive paper explores which states effectively assist foster youth aging out of care. I use the National Youth in Transition Database and a value-added model to determine state effectiveness across a variety of outcomes, including college enrollment, employment, homelessness, incarceration, substance abuse, and parenthood. I find that there is considerable variation in state effectiveness depending on the outcome. Length: 24 pages Creation-Date: 2024-01 Revision-Date: 2024-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-01.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-01 Classification-JEL: I38, J13 Keywords: Foster youth, Extended foster care, Transition to adulthood, Value-added model. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-01 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Alexa Prettyman Author-X-Name-First: Alexa Author-X-Name-Last: Prettyman Author-Email: cprettyman@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Happy 18th Birthday, Now Leave: Estimating the Causal Effects of Extended Foster Care Abstract: Over 20,000 youth age out of foster care each year in the United States and face various hardships. Exploiting plausibly exogenous policy variation, I find that exposure to extended foster care reduces homelessness and incarceration by 29 and 38 percent, respectively. Outcomes from the National Youth in Transition Database, a longitudinal survey that collects information from foster youth at ages 17, 19, and 21, are linked to the Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System, administrative data containing information about individuals' foster care history. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that extended foster care yields a 4:1 return on investment. Length: 78 pages Creation-Date: 2024-02 Revision-Date: 2024-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-02.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-02 Classification-JEL: I38, J13 Keywords: Foster youth, Extended foster care, Transition to adulthood. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-02 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: James Manley Author-X-Name-First: James Author-X-Name-Last: Manley Author-Email: jmanley@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Education: a key to women's agricultural productivity in Cambodia Abstract: As women comprise a larger share of land managers, it is important to discern factors that limit their success. Using nationally representative data from Cambodia we compare factors associated with productivity among female headed households as opposed to male headed households. OLS regressions show that household size, education, vocational training, land area, an index of non-agricultural capital, and the income share from agriculture are positively related to all types of agricultural revenue. However, when we use a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to separately consider revenue from crop production and rice production (as opposed to animal husbandry) we see that after the primacy of land access, the years of education are the next most important, and that differences between endowments explain all of the difference between male and female-headed households. We conclude that there are high returns to investment in education for girls and women in Cambodian agriculture. Length: 13 pages Creation-Date: 2024-02 Revision-Date: 2024-02 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-03.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-03 Classification-JEL: Q12, J16, J31 Keywords: Cambodia, education, Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition, agricultural productivity, FAO, 50x2030. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-03 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Yang Yang Author-X-Name-First: Yang Author-X-Name-Last: Yang Author-Email: yangyanghnwg@zuel.edu.cn Author-Workplace-Name: School of Finance, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law Author-Name: Ren Zhang Author-X-Name-First: Ren Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang Author-Email: r_z79@txstate.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Finance & Economics, Texas State University Author-Name: Shuwei Zhang Author-X-Name-First: Shuwei Author-X-Name-Last: Zhang Author-Email: shuweizhang@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Deciphering Dollar Exchange Rates and Interest Parity Abstract: This paper explores exchange rate dynamics and the uncovered interest parity (UIP) violation in the context of multiple shocks. Our key contribution lies in reveal- ing that exchange rate dynamics emanate from the collective influence of different shocks, in contrast to prevailing literature emphasizing the dominance of a single shock. While verifying the unconditional UIP reversals, we are the first to show that there is no significant evidence of conditional UIP reversal with an innovative test method developed in this paper. Additionally, through rigorous mathematical proof, we establish that conditional UIP reversal is not a prerequisite for unconditional UIP reversal in models featuring a moving averaging representation. This insight relaxes stringent prerequisites in earlier theoretical studies, offering broad applicability for understanding reversal patterns in UIP and other asset returns. Length: 66 pages Creation-Date: 2024-03 Revision-Date: 2024-03 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-04.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-04 Classification-JEL: E32, E44, E52, F31, F41 Keywords: Bayesian SVAR, Exchange rate, New Fama puzzle, Uncovered interest parity. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-04 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Robert J. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Robert Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: rjgitter@owu.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics and Business, Ohio Wesleyan University Title: Sorting and Staying: Economics PhDs and Their Hiring and Separation from More Teaching-Oriented Universities Abstract: Hiring a new economics faculty member is a time-consuming and arduous process, especially for smaller, teaching-oriented programs with limited faculty and budgetary resources. Access to information on graduate programs and candidates that are more likely to yield successful hires allows these programs to allocate scarce resources more efficiently. A dataset of over 650 economics PhD placements at non-economics PhD-granting institutions partially fills this information gap. Results show that new assistant professors in teaching-oriented economics departments tend to be hired from economics PhD-granting institutions with a mean U.S. News and World Report ranking of around 45. In addition, results indicate a positive relationship between the rank of the hiring department and the PhD-granting program. Top-ranked graduate programs in economics send a smaller proportion of their graduates to teaching-oriented institutions, and the average rank of new PhD hires has declined over time. Hires from top PhD- granting programs are more likely to stay at liberal arts colleges and less likely to stay at national universities relative to peers hired at lower-ranked PhD programs. Length: 30 pages Creation-Date: 2024-05 Revision-Date: 2024-05 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-05.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-05 Classification-JEL: A11 Keywords: Market for Economists, PhD placements, Small Liberal Arts Schools, and Professor Retention. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-05 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Grace Larocque Author-X-Name-First: Grace Author-X-Name-Last: Larocque Author-Workplace-Name: Towson University Author-Name: Motunrayo Akinloye Author-X-Name-First: Motunrayo Author-X-Name-Last: Akinloye Author-Workplace-Name: Towson University Title: Marriage, Taliban Rule, Norms and Women's Empowerment in Afghanistan Abstract: The Taliban have devastated the rights of women in Afghanistan by limiting their ability to participate in society, potentially causing permanent harm to women's autonomy within their own marriages. We posit that women married during the Taliban rule may see reduced autonomy based on changes in gender norms from Taliban policy. We estimate the effect of being married during various levels of Taliban rule in 2002, 2009, and 2012 on outcomes in 2015. We use variation in the Taliban's control in a province at the time of marriage to estimate the effects of norms at the time of a marriage on outcomes measured in 2015. We find that women's decision-making power was higher in 2015 for those who married when their province was not under Taliban control, but surprisingly, their experience of intimate partner violence (IPV) also increased, suggesting that intrahousehold conflicts potentially increased from regime changes. We link these results to a previous literature that suggests that retaliatory IPV may occur as women gain more power and lower their fertility, with the finding that when the Taliban lost control, fertility fell substantially. These results suggest potential policies that address the long-term negative impacts of the Taliban rule on women's autonomy should the regime lose power again, with special attention given to potential increases in IPV. Length: 28 pages Creation-Date: 2024-06 Revision-Date: 2024-06 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-06.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-06 Classification-JEL: O2, J12 Keywords: Norms, Taliban, Marriage, Women Afghanistan. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-06 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Seth R. Gitter Author-X-Name-First: Seth Author-X-Name-Last: Gitter Author-Email: sgitter@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Grace Larocque Author-X-Name-First: Grace Author-X-Name-Last: Larocque Author-Workplace-Name: Towson University Title: Gender Inequality: One of the Greatest Drivers of World Hunger Abstract: Gender inequality is consistently left out of the conversation about global hunger, with most literature focusing on poverty, conflict, natural disasters, or governance as driving factors. We theorize, however, that gender inequality is in fact one of the greatest drivers of world hunger. We find that gender inequality has an associated relationship with a country level measure of hunger, the Global Hunger Index, almost three times that of other driving factors in hunger using a country fixed effects regression. Our findings suggest that programs targeted toward improving gender equality may have higher rates of return for reducing hunger. Length: 12 pages Creation-Date: 2024-06 Revision-Date: 2024-06 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-07.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-07 Classification-JEL: J16, O2 Keywords: Global Hunger Index, Gender. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-07 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Heterogeneous Impacts of ACA-Medicaid Expansion on Insurance and Labor Market Outcomes in the American South Abstract: The expansion of Medicaid through the Affordable Care Act (ACA-Medicaid) has sparked debates on its impact on local labor markets. This study delves into the heterogeneous im- pacts of ACA-Medicaid expansion on insurance and labor market outcomes in the American South. Utilizing the modified version of Causal Forest approach, the research uncovers significant heterogeneity in treatment effects. Notably, counties ranking within the top 10 percent based on the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimates exhibit a reduction in the unin- sured rate by approximately 13 percentage points more than the average during the year of the reform. Moreover, the estimated heterogeneity suggest evidence of increased unemployment rates, decreased total employment, and a contraction of labor force in the years following the expansion. Such effects are particularly concentrated in food/accommodation and retail/trade sectors. These findings offer insights for refining and optimizing healthcare reform strategies. Length: 64 pages Creation-Date: 2024-06 Revision-Date: 2024-06 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-08.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-08 Classification-JEL: I10, I14, C10, C19 Keywords: Medicaid expansion, Labor market outcomes, Heterogeneous effects, Conditional average treatment effect (CATE), Causal Forests (CF), Causal Machine Learning. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-08 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Historical Racial Oppression and Healthcare Access: Unveiling Disparities Post-ACA in the American South Abstract: This study investigates geographical disparities in the implementation and effectiveness of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) by linking them to the historical legacy of racial oppression in the American South. Using a cross-border regression discontinuity design that leverages variations in racial oppression intensity, we find that bordering counties in states with less oppressive regime experienced significantly greater benefits from the ACA compared to neighboring counties in more oppressive states. This divergence in insurance outcomes, which did not exist before the ACA, underscores the influence of historical racial regimes on contemporary policy efficacy. Furthermore, we demonstrate that political preferences from the Jim Crow era are correlated with the observed variations in ACA effectiveness. Our findings suggest that the racialization of the ACA is deeply rooted in the historical context of racial oppression in the American South. Length: 19 pages Creation-Date: 2024-07 Revision-Date: 2024-07 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-09.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-09 Classification-JEL: I10, I14, D02, B15 Keywords: ACA, Oppressive racial regime, Disparity, American South. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-09 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Juergen Jung Author-X-Name-First: Juergen Author-X-Name-Last: Jung Author-Email: jjung@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Author-Name: Vinish Shrestha Author-X-Name-First: Vinish Author-X-Name-Last: Shrestha Author-Email: vshrestha@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Medicaid Work Requirements, Labor Market Effects and Welfare Abstract: We use an overlapping generations model with labor supply decisions, health risk, and health in- surance choices to investigate the impact of work requirements for Medicaid eligibility. Calibrating the model to US data, we simulate counterfactual experiments comprising a minimum weekly work hours requirement for Medicaid with exceptions for sick individuals. Our partial and general equilibrium results indicate that Medicaid work requirements increase labor force participation, reduce hours worked, and boost output. However, most scenarios result in overall welfare losses that are somewhat mitigated by general equilibrium income effects. The losses are highest among low-income households while high- income households experience welfare gains. Welfare losses become more pronounced if the reform includes work requirements for sick individuals, extending the negative welfare impact to middle-income households as well. Length: 79 pages Creation-Date: 2024-08 Revision-Date: 2025-01 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-10.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-10 Classification-JEL: H51, I13, I14, I38, J21, D58 Keywords: Medicaid reform, Medicaid work requirements, The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA), Labor supply, Labor market distortions, Health risk, Section 1115 Medicaid demonstration waivers. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-10 Template-Type: ReDIF-Paper 1.0 Author-Name: Shantanu Bagchi Author-X-Name-First: Shantanu Author-X-Name-Last: Bagchi Author-Email: sbagchi@towson.edu Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Economics, Towson University Title: Business Cycles and Public Pensions: Aggregate Risk and Social Security in the United States Abstract: This paper uses a stylized overlapping-generations model to examine the effect of aggregate (or business cycle) risk on the macroeconomic and welfare implications of Social Security. In this model framework, unfunded public pensions provide partial insurance against inter- and intra-generational risks that are uninsured due to incomplete markets. I find that in this environment, Social Security’s macroeconomic and welfare effects are considerably smaller than those in a framework without aggregate risk, and that the persistence of the aggregate shock process is an important determinant of this difference. I also find that aggregate risk changes how the redistribution implicit in Social Security's benefit-earnings rule interacts with its inter- generational risk sharing mechanism. Length: 20 pages Creation-Date: 2024-09 Revision-Date: 2024-09 File-URL: http://webapps.towson.edu/cbe/economics/workingpapers/2024-11.pdf File-Format: Application/pdf File-Function: First version, 2024 Number: 2024-11 Classification-JEL: E21, E62, H55 Keywords: Social Security, aggregate risk, business cycles, incomplete markets, intergenerational risk. Handle: RePEc:tow:wpaper:2024-11